City Centre West

Project description

The subject property comprises three parcels (PINs 57 4 02 076, 57 4 02 072, and 57 4 02 071) totaling approximately 77,683 square feet, or approximately 1.78 acres, located in the City of Fairfax, Virginia. The site is currently developed with three freestanding buildings: a vacant 3,721 square foot drive-through bank, a vacant 4,408 square foot restaurant, and an 11,340 square foot low-rise office building, for a total existing building area of 19,469 square feet. There are no existing residential units on the site.

The approved proposal, per the July 3, 2023 proffers and narrative (the controlling documents), consists of a single 8-story building of approximately 94 feet in height containing: up to 79 for-sale condominium dwelling units, of which 5 units (representing 6% of the total) are designated affordable; approximately 7,731 square feet of ground-floor retail and/or restaurant uses; and approximately 36,862 square feet of non-retail/restaurant commercial floor area (including office, medical, and bank uses). A partially buried 4-level parking garage will provide 309 parking spaces. The project has been approved. Earlier submissions proposed 84 or 88 units, 324 or 467 parking spaces, and up to 10,024 square feet of retail; the July 2023 documents control on all figures.

Economic effects

New demand. At a stabilized occupancy rate of 0.93–0.99, the 79 proposed units are estimated to yield 73–78 occupied households. Applying Rutgers CUPR residential demographic multipliers for multifamily units by bedroom mix, and assuming 1.6–2.4 persons per occupied unit, the project is projected to bring approximately 118–188 new residents to the city. Aggregate household income for the new resident population is estimated using the mean household income of site census tract 51600300400 ($173,176, from ACS 5-year 2024 data, tables B19025/B11001), scaled by a new-construction income premium of 1.15–1.60 to reflect the tendency of for-sale condominium buyers to anchor to purchase price rather than area rents.

Spending and retail capture. Annual new household spending is estimated by category using BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey 2023 line items, scaled by income using Engel-curve elasticities by category. The largest spending streams are comparison retail ($549,000–$1,082,000/yr), entertainment ($459,000–$936,000/yr), and restaurants and bars ($434,000–$829,000/yr). Grocery spending is estimated at $482,000–$805,000/yr, convenience retail at $89,000–$156,000/yr, and personal services at $126,000–$244,000/yr.

Where spending lands — Huff model capture (screening estimates). The distribution of new resident spending across the area's retail destinations was estimated using a Huff model applied to individual retail points of interest, treating destination choice and travel mode jointly. The model is a screening estimate that ranks where new spending is likely to land and provides sensitivity bounds; it is not a prediction. The top destination clusters in order of modeled annual capture are:

• Fairchester Drive & Hill Street: $606,000–$1,164,000/yr — the leading cluster, driven primarily by grocery and comparison retail capture.
• Chain Bridge Road & North Street: $384,000–$956,000/yr — notable for restaurant/bar and entertainment capture given proximity to the site.
• Fair Lakes Parkway & Fair Oaks Mall: $196,000–$322,000/yr — dominated by comparison retail and entertainment, with no grocery capture modeled.
• Mathy Drive & Pickett Road: $125,000–$211,000/yr — a mixed capture across grocery, comparison retail, and entertainment.
• Blenheim Boulevard & Fairfax Boulevard: $89,000–$140,000/yr — a smaller, distributed capture.

The in-city capture share of all retail spending is estimated at 0.60–0.68 across categories; for food away from home specifically, the in-city share is estimated at 0.64–0.73.

Project's own ground-floor retail. The project's 7,731 square feet of ground-floor retail and/or restaurant space was modeled as a competing destination in the Huff run. Under this screening estimate, the project's own retail is projected to capture $5,656–$13,088/yr of the new residents' spending — a modest share consistent with the ground-floor space competing against a large surrounding retail inventory. This figure is a screening estimate.

Foot-traffic index. The modeled change in the foot-traffic index for the 10 nearest commercial street segments is 0% under the central assumptions. This figure compares exact marginal walk-trip flows from new residents (allocated by shortest paths to POI-weighted destinations with exponential walk-time decay) against a sampled index of today's pedestrian betweenness. The foot-traffic index change is a screening estimate; the baseline is a sampled network index, not calibrated pedestrian counts. New annual spending arriving on foot is estimated at $59,000–$1,430,000/yr, and by bike at $2,000–$216,000/yr; both carry wide ranges because they are driven by the walk- and bike-mode share assumptions.

Jobs ledger. On-site jobs are estimated from floor area using square-feet-per-job ratios. The existing 19,469 square feet of commercial space supports an estimated 39–78 jobs that would be displaced. The proposed development would add an estimated 11–19 retail jobs (from 7,731 sq ft of retail at 400–700 sq ft per job) and 74–147 office jobs (from 36,862 sq ft of office at 250–500 sq ft per job). The net on-site job change is estimated at approximately +7 to +128 jobs, computed as retail jobs added plus office jobs added minus existing jobs removed.

Fiscal effects

Current real estate tax. The three subject parcels currently generate $60,082/yr in real estate tax, computed as the current assessed value multiplied by the applicable rate from the City of Fairfax Real Estate Assessment Database (Patriot WebPro, 2026 vintage) and the FY2027 real estate tax rate.

Projected assessed value and real estate tax. The projected assessed value of $43,915,600–$72,215,300 (central: $59,616,875) is computed as proposed residential units multiplied by an assumed assessed value per unit ($443,000–$665,000/unit, drawn from 100 condominium-class comparable sales in the City's assessment database), plus retail square footage at $200–$400/sq ft, plus office square footage at $200–$450/sq ft. The projected annual real estate tax is $470,995–$774,509/yr (central: $639,391/yr). The real estate tax increase over current — the largest single revenue line — is $410,912–$714,427/yr.

Sanity note from the analysis: the projected assessed value at the central assumption ($59,616,875) is approximately 44% of the stated construction cost basis published in the applicant's April 24, 2023 Fiscal Impact Analysis ($136,330,000). New construction typically assesses at roughly 70–110% of hard cost; figures well outside that range may indicate the assessed value per unit is drawn from a product class that does not match the proposed units. Readers should treat the assessed-value projection as a screening estimate pending actual sales data.

Other recurring revenue lines (all rough estimates unless noted). Additional annual revenues estimated by this analysis include:

• Personal property tax on resident vehicles (rough estimate): $27,309–$116,283/yr, computed as new households multiplied by assumed vehicles per household (1.0–1.8) multiplied by assumed average vehicle assessed value ($9,000–$20,000) multiplied by the City personal property tax rate.
• BPOL business license tax on project retail (rough estimate): $577–$4,629/yr, computed as proposed retail square footage multiplied by assumed gross sales per square foot ($250–$600/sq ft) multiplied by the BPOL retail rate, multiplied by a net-new share (0.15–0.50) to remove receipts displaced from existing city businesses.
• BPOL business license tax on project office (rough estimate): $44,234–$117,958/yr, computed as proposed office square footage multiplied by assumed gross receipts per square foot ($300–$800/sq ft) multiplied by the BPOL professional/financial services rate. This line is not displacement-adjusted, as professional and medical practices are assumed to serve regional demand.
• Business tangible property tax (rough estimate): $7,367–$27,625/yr, computed as proposed commercial square footage multiplied by assumed equipment value per square foot ($4–$15/sq ft) multiplied by the City personal property tax rate.
• Meals tax on captured in-city dining: $12,454–$27,364/yr, computed as the restaurant spending of new households multiplied by the in-city capture share from the Huff model and the City meals tax rate.
• Meals tax on the project's own restaurants (rough estimate): $3,894–$72,904/yr, computed as ground-floor square footage multiplied by assumed sales per square foot, multiplied by an assumed restaurant share of retail space (0.30–0.70), multiplied by the meals tax rate and the net-new share.
• Local sales tax share on captured in-city retail: $6,676–$13,803/yr, computed as the in-city captured retail spending from the Huff model multiplied by the local-option sales tax share under Va. Code § 58.1-605.
• Local sales tax on the project's own retail (rough estimate): $2,884–$23,145/yr, computed as ground-floor square footage multiplied by assumed sales per square foot, multiplied by the local sales tax share and the net-new share.

Service cost — two methods. This analysis estimates service costs under two framings that bound the likely true cost, and both ranges are reported because neither is definitive for an infill project:

• Naive per-capita method: $696,444–$1,238,469/yr. Computed as new residents multiplied by the non-school General Fund expenditure per resident ($5,254/capita, derived from the FY2027 adopted budget), plus estimated K-12 students (4–13, central: 8, at 0.05–0.16 students per unit) multiplied by the net local cost per pupil ($19,961, derived from the FY2027 school tuition contract net of state education revenue). This framing allocates fixed citywide costs to new residents and likely overstates the true marginal cost of infill development.
• Marginal framing: $233,244–$794,693/yr. Computed as the non-school per-capita cost multiplied by a marginal cost factor of 0.25–0.55 (central: 0.35), plus the same student cost as above. The marginal factor reflects that fixed services such as roads and administration do not scale proportionally with additional infill residents. This framing likely understates costs if service capacity expansions are triggered.

School costs — estimated at $78,844–$252,301/yr — are identical in both framings, driven by the student generation assumption.

Net annual fiscal impact. Combining all revenue lines with the cost range across both methods, the net annual fiscal impact is estimated at −$722,161 to +$884,893/yr. Under the naive per-capita method alone the central estimate is −$172,656/yr (range: −$722,161 to +$421,693); under the marginal framing alone the central estimate is +$350,727/yr (range: −$278,385 to +$884,893). The sign of the result is genuinely uncertain under the naive framing: at unfavorable combinations of assumptions the project costs more in services than it generates in revenue, while under the marginal framing the central estimate is positive. The range across methods is intentional and reflects a real policy question about how much of the city's fixed cost base should be allocated to new infill residents.

Comparison with published external estimates. Two external estimates have been published and are reported here as published; they are not combined with the figures above.

• The applicant's April 24, 2023 Fiscal Impact Analysis (Ox Hill Research & Analytics) states: "The overall fiscal impact to the City of Fairfax ranges from $1,627,000 to $2,162,000 of new tax revenues on an annual basis." This range does not overlap with this analysis's range of −$722,161 to +$884,893. The methodological reasons for the gap visible in the respective methods include: the applicant analysis appears to characterize the fiscal impact as new tax revenues without deducting service costs in a comparable way; the applicant analysis was prepared for an earlier design iteration (84–88 units) with a larger program than the controlling 79-unit proffer; and the applicant analysis may use different assessed-value and income assumptions. The two estimates should be read as independent and the reader should compare them directly.
• The City of Fairfax Community Development & Planning staff reports (June 26, 2023 Planning Commission and July 11, 2023 City Council) both state: "[T]he anticipated fiscal impact estimate for the proposed redevelopment project ranges from $543,000 and $741,000 annually with an average of $642,000." This range does overlap with the upper portion of this analysis's range of −$722,161 to +$884,893. The staff range falls within the marginal-framing portion of this analysis's output; methodological differences likely include the staff report's cost assumptions and the specific revenue lines selected.

Not evaluated in this version

Bike-lane corridor effects, trail connectivity, broader pedestrian-network connectivity impacts, environmental impacts, and comparable-places analyses were not computed in this version of the analysis and are deferred to future modules. Additionally, the two fiscal impact analyses prepared by the applicant (Ox Hill Research & Analytics, January 2022 and September 2022) are referenced in the project record but could not be verified against verbatim document quotes and were therefore excluded from the external-estimate comparison; only the April 24, 2023 analysis has been included as a published external estimate.