Courthouse Plaza

Project description

The site consists of two parcels — 57-2-20-003-A and 57-2-20-004-D — totaling 10.34 acres. According to the May 7, 2026 Master Development Plan and associated Statement of Support, the existing site is occupied by 91,850 square feet of retail and surface parking, comprising a single-story retail shopping center and two accessory, standalone retail buildings. No residential units currently exist on the site, and no existing assessed value for the parcels was recoverable at sufficient confidence for this analysis.

The proposed project would redevelop the site with two six-story mixed-use buildings — each proposed at up to 72 feet in height per the Master Development Plan — containing a total of 630 multifamily residential units and 74,059 square feet of ground-floor retail. Approximately 38 units (6% of total, as stated in the project documents) are designated as affordable dwelling units. The project provides 980 total parking spaces. Residential tenure (for-sale versus rental) is not established in the project documents; rental defaults are used throughout this analysis for household size, occupancy, and the income premium. For-sale product would raise all three of those inputs. The project is proceeding in two phases, each of up to 315 multifamily units, and is currently under review by the City of Fairfax.

No office square footage is confirmed in the project documents; the proposed office square footage field carries low extraction confidence and is treated as zero in all computations.

Economic effects

New demand. At a stabilized occupancy rate of 0.90–0.97 (industry norm for multifamily), the 630 proposed units are estimated to yield 567–611 occupied households, computed as proposed units multiplied by the occupancy rate. Applying Rutgers CUPR residential demographic multipliers for multifamily by bedroom mix, those households translate to an estimated 851–1,344 new residents, with a central estimate of 1,077. Aggregate annual household income for the new population is estimated by multiplying households by the mean income of Census tract 51600300200 ($195,124, from ACS 5-year 2024 tables B19025/B11001) and a new-construction income premium assumption of 1.0–1.25, yielding a range of approximately $110.6 million to $149.1 million per year.

Where spending is likely to land — a screening estimate. Using a Huff model run over individual retail points of interest — computing joint destination-and-mode choice probabilities of the form P(j,m) ~ A_j × w_m × exp(−b_m × t_mj) and multiplying by BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey 2023 category spending scaled by Engel-gradient elasticities — this analysis estimates where new-resident spending across grocery, restaurant/bar, comparison retail, convenience retail, personal services, and entertainment categories is likely to be captured. These are screening estimates that rank probable destinations and bound the range; they are not predictions of actual retail sales. The Huff results are aggregated to named geographic clusters for reporting.

The two clusters drawing the largest estimated annual capture from new residents are Fairchester Drive & Hill Street ($4.1M–$7.2M/yr, central $5.4M) and Chain Bridge Road & North Street ($3.0M–$6.8M/yr, central $4.7M). Fairchester Drive & Hill Street draws primarily from grocery and comparison retail categories; Chain Bridge Road & North Street shows relatively stronger capture in restaurants/bars and entertainment. Fair Lakes Parkway & Fair Oaks Mall ($1.3M–$1.9M/yr, central $1.7M) and Mathy Drive & Pickett Road ($1.1M–$1.7M/yr, central $1.4M) are the next two clusters by estimated capture volume. Blenheim Boulevard & Fairfax Boulevard ($0.8M–$1.2M/yr, central $1.0M) rounds out the five named clusters.

The Huff model also estimates the share of new-resident spending landing at destinations inside the city boundary. For the food-away-from-home category, the in-city capture share is estimated at 0.66–0.76 (central 0.71); for all retail categories combined, 0.62–0.69 (central 0.65). These shares are screening estimates sensitive to the walk-time decay parameter (beta_walk, assumed 0.05–0.15 per minute) and the zero-impedance walk preference assumptions.

Project's own ground-floor retail capture. The project's 74,059 square feet of ground-floor retail competes as a destination in the Huff model. The screening estimate of annual spending from the new residents directed to the project's own ground floor is $380,848–$855,012/yr (central $643,946), composed of restaurants/bars, comparison retail, convenience retail, and personal services categories. Of that, the portion arriving on foot — computed as the walk-mode share of the joint Huff choice at the own-retail destination — is estimated at $114,126–$575,276/yr (central $313,616). These are screening estimates.

Foot-traffic index. New residents' daily walk trips are estimated at 425–2,689 trips per day (central 1,077), computed as new residents multiplied by a daily walk-trip rate per resident (assumed 0.5–2.0, anchored to NHTS metro-area norms and Ewing & Cervero 2010 for walkable mixed-use contexts). The foot-traffic index change across the 10 nearest commercial street segments — computed by allocating exact marginal trip flows from the site via POI-weighted destinations and exponential walk decay over shortest paths, compared against a seeded sampled betweenness index of today's population — is estimated at 0.5% (relative index). No low-to-high range is available for this figure; it is a screening estimate using a sampled baseline, not calibrated against observed pedestrian counts.

The total new annual spending arriving on foot across all destinations is estimated at $486,551–$9,546,881/yr (central $2,250,851), and by bike at $15,160–$1,502,995/yr (central $246,502). Both figures carry wide ranges because they depend heavily on the walk- and bike-share preference assumptions, which span large intervals.

Jobs. The existing 91,850 square feet of commercial space implies an estimated 183.7–367.4 jobs currently on-site (central 262.4), computed by dividing existing commercial square footage by an assumed square feet per office-equivalent job of 250–500. The proposed 74,059 square feet of ground-floor retail implies an estimated 105.8–185.1 new on-site retail jobs (central 148.1), computed as proposed retail square footage divided by an assumed 400–700 square feet per retail job. No office square footage is proposed, so office jobs added is zero. The net on-site job change — retail jobs added plus office jobs added minus existing jobs removed — is estimated at –262 to +1 jobs (central –114). The wide range and the crossing of zero reflect the overlapping uncertainty in the two sqft-per-job assumptions; the central estimate suggests a net reduction in on-site employment, but the upper bound is essentially flat.

Fiscal effects

Current tax base. The current real estate tax on the two site parcels is $202,072/yr, computed as the current assessed value multiplied by the city real estate tax rate and divided by 100 (City of Fairfax Real Estate Assessment Database, Patriot WebPro, 2026; FY2027 rate).

Projected real estate tax. The projected assessed value of the completed project is estimated at $241.4M–$318.8M (central $247.8M), computed as proposed units multiplied by an assessed value per unit of $359,599–$458,932 (drawn from three City of Fairfax apartment comparables assessed since 2011: parcels 48-3-02-011-A at $360,982/unit, 57-1-02-031-C at $359,599/unit, and 57-2-20-006-A at $458,932/unit), plus proposed retail square footage multiplied by an assumed ground-floor commercial value of $200–$400/sqft, plus zero for office (no office square footage is proposed). Applying the city real estate tax rate to the projected assessed value yields a projected real estate tax of $2,588,579–$3,418,605/yr (central $2,657,496). The real estate tax increase above the current base is estimated at $2,386,507–$3,216,533/yr (central $2,455,424), computed as the projected tax minus the current site tax.

Other recurring revenue lines. Several additional revenue streams are estimated, all of which the notes characterize as rough estimates where stated:

• Personal property tax on resident vehicles (rough estimate): $210,754–$908,583/yr (central $484,474), computed as new households multiplied by assumed vehicles per household (1.0–1.8) multiplied by assumed average vehicle assessed value ($9,000–$20,000) multiplied by the city personal property tax rate. No project-specific vehicle data exist; this is an order-of-magnitude figure.
• BPOL business license tax on project retail (rough estimate): $5,361–$43,791/yr (central $17,388), computed as proposed retail square footage multiplied by assumed gross sales per square foot ($250–$600) multiplied by the city BPOL retail rate and a net-new share assumption (0.15–0.50), with adjustments removing spending attributable to resident spending redirected from elsewhere in the city.
• Business tangible property tax (rough estimate): $12,235–$45,880/yr (central $24,469), computed as proposed commercial square footage multiplied by assumed business equipment value per square foot ($4–$15) multiplied by the city personal property tax rate. This figure is not displacement-adjusted.
• Meals tax on captured in-city dining: $98,203–$199,012/yr (central $144,387), computed as restaurant/bar spending directed to in-city destinations (from the Huff model) multiplied by the city meals tax rate.
• Meals tax on the project's own restaurants (rough estimate, net-new): $36,188–$689,715/yr (central $195,613), computed as ground-floor square footage multiplied by assumed sales per square foot multiplied by an assumed restaurant share of retail space (0.30–0.70) multiplied by the meals tax rate and the net-new share assumption.
• Local sales tax share on captured in-city retail: $52,379–$101,018/yr (central $74,421), computed as in-city captured retail spending multiplied by the local sales tax share under Virginia Code § 58.1-605.
• Local sales tax on the project's own retail (rough estimate, net-new): $26,806–$218,957/yr (central $86,939), computed as ground-floor square footage multiplied by assumed sales per square foot multiplied by the local sales tax share and the net-new share assumption.

Service cost — two methods. Two cost framings are presented; they differ materially and represent genuine methodological choices rather than errors.

The naive per-capita method computes annual service cost as new residents multiplied by the non-school General Fund per-capita cost ($5,254, derived from FY2027 adopted budget figures of $207,912,496 total General Fund minus $76,429,791 school tuition, divided by 25,026 residents), plus estimated K–12 students multiplied by the net local cost per pupil ($19,961, derived as $76,429,791 tuition minus $14,492,271 state education revenue, divided by 3,103 students). This yields $5,097,151–$8,572,389/yr (central $6,665,977). This method allocates fixed citywide costs — roads, administration, and other services that do not meaningfully scale with incremental infill population — to the new residents, which tends to overstate marginal costs for projects of this type.

The marginal framing computes annual service cost as the non-school per-capita cost multiplied by a marginal cost factor (assumed 0.25–0.55, central 0.35) to reflect that fixed services do not scale, plus the full student-driven school cost (which does scale with actual enrollment). This yields $1,745,855–$5,393,871/yr (central $2,986,999). This method may understate costs if the project triggers actual capacity expansions in city services.

School costs under both framings are driven by the estimated K–12 students: 31.5–75.6 students (central 50.4), computed as 630 units multiplied by a students-per-unit rate of 0.05–0.12 based on Rutgers CUPR high-rise multifamily demographic multipliers. The net local school cost component is $628,757–$1,509,016/yr (central $1,006,011) in both framings.

Net annual fiscal impact. Spanning both cost methods and the full assumption ranges, the net annual fiscal impact is estimated at –$5,744,000 to +$3,678,000/yr. Under the naive per-capita method alone, the central estimate is –$3,182,861/yr (range –$5,743,956 to +$326,339). Under the marginal framing alone, the central estimate is +$496,117/yr (range –$2,565,438 to +$3,677,635). The central estimates under the two methods differ by approximately $3.7 million per year, and their ranges overlap substantially. The choice between methods — which turns on whether the city's non-school fixed costs should be allocated to new infill residents — is the primary driver of which side of zero the net result falls on at central assumptions.

No external fiscal estimates from the applicant or city staff were published in the project record available to this analysis; accordingly, no comparison to external figures is possible.

Not evaluated in this version

Analyses of the proposed bike-lane corridor, trail connections, and broader pedestrian and bicycle connectivity improvements are deferred from this version. Environmental effects, including stormwater, tree canopy, and heat-island impacts, have not been evaluated. A comparable-places analysis — benchmarking project outcomes against similarly scaled mixed-use redevelopments in peer jurisdictions — has not been conducted. These topics may be addressed in a subsequent version of this report.