Davies Property

Project description

The subject parcel (parcel ID 57 4 02 040) is currently improved with a single-family home. The approved proposal would redevelop the approximately 2.69-acre site with up to 276 upper-story rental apartments, 6,608 gross square feet of retail use, and approximately 4,188 square feet of office use — the latter comprising a co-working space (2,653 GSF) and a business center (1,535 GSF) as labeled on the July 2025 General Development Plan. The July 3, 2025 Statement of Support and proffers describe the nonresidential space collectively as "approximately 10,796 square feet of retail, office or other commercial nonresidential uses." The applicant proposes approximately 423 shared parking spaces. The project has been approved; it went through multiple resubmissions between February 2022 and July 2025. The number of affordable units has a low-confidence extraction and is not stated in this analysis. Building heights were revised between resubmissions; the July 2025 General Development Plan labels Building B as 5 stories at 58 feet, 1 inch, up from 46 feet, 9 inches in the April 2025 version.

Economic effects

New demand. Applying a stabilized occupancy rate of 0.95 (range 0.90–0.97) to the proposed 276 units, the model estimates 248 to 268 new households. Those households, sized using Rutgers CUPR bedroom-mix demographic multipliers for multifamily units (central 1.8 persons per unit, range 1.5–2.2), translate to a headline estimate of 372 to 589 new residents. Aggregate household income is estimated using the mean income of the site tract (Census ACS 5-year 2024, tract 51600300500, B19025/B11001, $224,337) scaled by a new-construction income premium (central 1.125, range 1.0–1.25) to reflect that new market-rate rental product typically draws higher-income households than the area median.

Spending estimates by category are derived by applying BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey 2023 line items, scaled by income-to-expenditure elasticities (grocery 0.45, restaurant/bar 0.85, comparison retail 0.95, convenience retail 0.60, personal services 0.90, entertainment 1.05). The top spending categories by annual volume are comparison retail ($2,079,239–$3,747,806), entertainment ($1,759,391–$3,242,844), grocery ($1,718,236–$2,770,132), and restaurants and bars ($1,625,383–$2,865,084).

Where spending is likely to land — screening estimates. The Huff model figures below are screening estimates. They are computed using a joint destination-and-mode-choice model over individual retail points of interest, with a walk-time decay parameter (central β = 0.10/min, range 0.05–0.15) and mode-split preferences, then aggregated to named commercial clusters for reporting. They rank where new spending is likely to land and show sensitivity bounds; they are not predictions of actual sales.

The two clusters capturing the largest estimated annual shares of new resident spending are Fairchester Drive & Hill Street ($2,058,088–$3,537,091, led by grocery, comparison retail, and restaurants) and Chain Bridge Road & North Street ($1,461,973–$3,337,725, led by entertainment, restaurants, and comparison retail). More distant clusters — Fair Lakes Parkway & Fair Oaks Mall ($674,324–$1,018,516) and Mathy Drive & Pickett Road ($499,963–$798,767) — attract smaller shares, primarily comparison retail and entertainment. The Huff model also estimates that across all retail categories, approximately 59% to 65% of new resident spending at retail destinations would land at businesses inside the city boundary; for the restaurant-and-bar category specifically, the in-city share is estimated at approximately 62% to 71%.

Project's own ground-floor retail. The 6,608-square-foot ground-floor retail space competes as a destination in the same Huff model. The model estimates it would capture $18,253–$42,520 per year of new resident spending, composed primarily of restaurants and bars, convenience retail, and comparison retail, reflecting the retail's immediate proximity to the residential floors. This too is a screening estimate.

Foot-traffic index. The model allocates new resident walk trips (estimated at 186–1,178 trips per day, derived as new residents × daily walk trips per resident, with a central walk-trip rate of 1.0 trip/resident/day, range 0.5–2.0) to the walk network using shortest-path routing weighted by POI destinations and the same exponential walk-decay function. Against a seeded sampled baseline betweenness index of today's population, the model estimates a 0.2% relative increase in foot traffic on the 10 nearest commercial street segments. This figure uses a sampled index of today's walkers rather than calibrated pedestrian counts; it is also a screening estimate.

Jobs on-site. The net on-site job change is estimated at 18 to 33 permanent positions. This is calculated as proposed retail square footage (6,608 sq ft) divided by the assumed square feet per retail job (central 500, range 400–700), yielding 9 to 17 retail jobs (central 13); plus proposed office square footage (4,188 sq ft) divided by the assumed square feet per office job (central 350, range 250–500), yielding 8 to 17 office jobs (central 12); minus jobs in removed existing space (zero, as the existing use is a single-family home with no commercial square footage).

Fiscal effects

Current tax. The current real estate tax on parcel 57 4 02 040 is $51,032 per year, computed as the current assessed value multiplied by the City's real estate tax rate.

Projected real estate tax. The projected assessed value is estimated at $101,408,595–$131,193,160, calculated as proposed units × assessed value per unit (central $360,983, range $359,599–$458,932 per unit, drawn from three City of Fairfax WebPro apartment-class comparables built since 2011) plus retail square footage × commercial assessed value per square foot (central $275, range $200–$400) plus office square footage × office assessed value per square foot (central $300, range $200–$450). Applying the City real estate tax rate yields a projected annual real estate tax of $1,087,607–$1,407,047, an increase of $1,036,575–$1,356,015 over the current levy.

Other recurring revenues. Additional revenue lines included in the net fiscal estimate are:

• Personal property tax on resident vehicles — rough estimate: $92,330–$398,046 per year, computed as new households × assumed vehicles per household (central 1.4, range 1.0–1.8) × assumed average vehicle assessed value (central $14,000, range $9,000–$20,000) × the City personal property tax rate. No project-specific vehicle data exist; this is an order-of-magnitude estimate.
• BPOL on project retail — rough estimate: $486–$3,933 per year, computed as proposed retail square footage × assumed gross sales per square foot (central $400, range $250–$600) × the City BPOL retail rate × a net-new share (central 0.30, range 0.15–0.50) that adjusts for sales displaced from other city businesses.
• BPOL on project office — rough estimate: $5,026–$13,402 per year, computed as proposed office square footage × assumed gross receipts per square foot (central $500, range $300–$800) × the BPOL professional-services rate, without displacement adjustment on the grounds that professional and medical practices serve regional demand.
• Business tangible property tax — rough estimate: $1,783–$6,688 per year, computed as proposed commercial square footage × assumed equipment value per square foot (central $8, range $4–$15) × the City business personal property rate.
• Meals tax on captured in-city dining — $45,450–$90,960 per year, computed as new-resident restaurant-and-bar spending × the in-city capture share from the Huff model × the City meals tax rate.
• Meals tax on the project's own restaurants — rough estimate: $3,281–$61,945 per year, computed as ground-floor square footage × assumed sales per square foot × an assumed restaurant share of ground-floor retail (central 0.50, range 0.30–0.70) × the meals tax rate × the net-new share.
• Local sales tax share on captured in-city retail — $24,204–$46,211 per year, computed as in-city captured retail spending (grocery, comparison retail, convenience retail categories) × the local-option sales tax share under Virginia Code § 58.1-605.
• Local sales tax on the project's own retail — rough estimate: $2,430–$19,665 per year, computed as ground-floor square footage × assumed sales per square foot × the local sales tax share × the net-new share.

Service costs — two framings, one used. The analysis computes service costs under a marginal framing: non-school per-capita cost from the FY2027 General Fund budget (computed as ($207,912,496 − $76,429,791) ÷ 25,026 residents = $5,254 per capita) is multiplied by a marginal cost factor (central 0.35, range 0.25–0.55) to reflect that fixed services do not scale proportionally with infill population. School costs are treated separately: estimated K-12 students (central 22, range 14–33, from Rutgers CUPR high-rise multipliers at 0.08 students per unit, range 0.05–0.12) are multiplied by the net local cost per pupil ($19,961, derived as ($76,429,791 tuition − $14,492,271 state education revenue) ÷ 3,103 students). The resulting total service cost range under the marginal framing is $764,851–$2,363,029 per year. A no-adjustment, average-cost framing was not computed in this version; the marginal framing understates costs if a discrete service-capacity expansion is triggered, and the marginal cost factor's range is the primary vehicle for that uncertainty.

Net fiscal range — this analysis. Under the marginal framing, the estimated net annual fiscal impact is −$1,151,462 to +$1,232,014, with a central-assumption point of approximately $92,981. The headline driver of the revenue side is the real estate tax increase; the headline driver of the cost side is the combination of non-school service costs (governed by the marginal cost factor) and school costs (governed by the students-per-unit assumption).

Comparison with published city staff estimates. Two city staff reports provide published fiscal estimates that are reported here as published and are not combined with the figures above.

The June 23, 2025 Planning Commission Public Hearing Staff Report states: "The estimated net fiscal balance is calculated as a range between −$308,000 and +$321,000 annually."

The December 5, 2023 City Council Post-Submission Work Session Staff Report states: "The estimated net fiscal balance is calculated as a range between −$344,000 and +$405,000 annually (avg. = +$61,000)."

This analysis's range (−$1,151,462 to +$1,232,014) overlaps both published staff ranges, but is substantially wider in both directions. The width difference is attributable to several methodological differences visible in the metric methods and notes. First, this analysis's cost side carries the full span of the marginal cost factor assumption (0.25–0.55) and the students-per-unit assumption (0.05–0.12), which together allow for high-cost scenarios not necessarily represented in staff's model. Second, this analysis's revenue side includes rough-estimate personal property and BPOL lines with wide assumption-driven bounds — lines that staff may model differently or exclude — which extend the upper end of the range. Third, the residential assessed value per unit here is calibrated from three WebPro comparables (range $359,599–$458,932 per unit), and the full span of that range is carried through; staff models may use a different comparable set or a point estimate. The central-assumption result of this analysis ($92,981) is in the same order of magnitude as, though not directly comparable to, the staff midpoints ($6,500 and $30,500).

Not evaluated in this version

The bike-lane corridor analysis, trail-connectivity assessment, broader pedestrian-network connectivity analysis, environmental and stormwater impact evaluation, and comparable-places analysis have not been computed in this version of the report and are deferred to future modules or separate staff review processes.