Paul VI

Project description

The site is a consolidation of three parcels totaling 18.51 acres. The existing use is Paul VI Catholic High School, a private non-profit high school with approximately 190,532 square feet of building area, plus two other residential parcels owned by the Diocese — including the John C. Wood House. The school building carries an assessed value that is noted in the project documents but the pre-development assessed value for the full site is not directly reported in the available documents; current parcel assessments reflect the built or under-construction project rather than the pre-development baseline, and the real-estate-tax-increase metric consequently understates the true increment.

The approved and most recent project documents (August 2018 Master Development Plan and Narrative) describe a total of 266 residential units: 144 multifamily residential condominiums in a four-story building, 115 townhomes, and 7 single-family detached homes. The project documents state: "No rental units shall be developed or offered." The program also includes 20,000 square feet of commercial/retail space. The project is currently under construction. Unit counts changed across plan versions submitted between April 2017 and August 2018 (ranging from 555 units in the earliest submission to 266 in the approved plan); the 266-unit figure from the approved August 2018 documents is used throughout this analysis.

Economic effects

At the assumed occupancy rate of 0.97 (range 0.93–0.99), the 266 proposed units are estimated to yield 247–263 new households. Applying Rutgers CUPR residential demographic multipliers (Listokin et al. 2006) for multifamily units by bedroom mix at 2.0 persons per household (range 1.6–2.4), estimated new residents fall in the range of 396–632, with a central estimate of 516.

New household spending is estimated by multiplying households by Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey (2023) category spending scaled by an income ratio raised to a category-specific Engel elasticity — with a new-construction income premium of 1.35 (range 1.15–1.60) applied relative to the mean income of the site tract (Census ACS 5-year 2024, tract 51600300100, B19025/B11001 mean of $149,926). The resulting aggregate household income estimate is $42.7 million–$63.2 million per year. The largest annual spending categories are comparison retail ($1.6M–$3.2M), grocery ($1.5M–$2.5M), entertainment ($1.3M–$2.7M), and restaurants and bars ($1.3M–$2.5M).

Huff model capture by cluster (screening estimates). Where new-resident spending lands across the city's commercial areas is estimated using a Huff model applied to individual retail points of interest, using a joint destination-and-mode choice — P(j,m) ~ A_j × w_m × exp(−b_m × t_mj) — with CES category spending as the demand base. The results are aggregated to named commercial clusters for reporting. These figures are screening estimates that rank likely destinations and show sensitivity bounds; they are not predictions. The top clusters by estimated annual capture are:

• Fairchester Drive & Hill Street: $2,091,272–$4,420,276/yr (central $3,070,186), with the grocery and restaurant/bar categories contributing most
• Chain Bridge Road & North Street: $824,934–$1,872,825/yr (central $1,211,571), with entertainment and restaurants as the leading sub-categories
• Fair Lakes Parkway & Fair Oaks Mall: $616,445–$1,062,580/yr (central $853,028), driven primarily by comparison retail and entertainment
• Blenheim Boulevard & Fairfax Boulevard: $323,415–$508,890/yr (central $418,605)
• Mathy Drive & Pickett Road: $292,531–$454,219/yr (central $383,440)

The in-city capture share across all retail categories is estimated at 0.58–0.66 (central 0.61); for food-away-from-home specifically, the in-city capture share is estimated at 0.63–0.73 (central 0.67).

Project's own ground-floor retail. The project's 20,000 square feet of retail space competes as a destination in the same Huff model. Estimated annual capture at the project's own ground floor is $41,764–$100,743/yr (central $73,067), primarily from restaurants and bars, convenience retail, and comparison retail categories. This is a screening estimate.

Foot-traffic index. The change in the foot-traffic index for the 10 nearest commercial street segments is estimated at 0.1% (relative index), computed by allocating exact marginal trip flows from the site — using POI-weighted destinations with exponential walk-time decay and shortest-path routing — against the seeded sampled baseline betweenness of today's population. This is a screening estimate; the baseline uses a sampled index, not calibrated pedestrian counts.

Jobs ledger. The existing 190,532 square feet of school and associated space is estimated to support 381–762 on-site jobs (central 544), computed by dividing existing commercial square footage by an assumed 350 square feet per office job (range 250–500). The proposed 20,000 square feet of retail space is estimated to support 29–50 on-site jobs (central 40), computed by dividing proposed retail square footage by an assumed 500 square feet per retail job (range 400–700). No office square footage is proposed; the office jobs added figure in the ledger is zero. The net on-site job change is therefore estimated at −331 to −734 jobs (central −504), reflecting the displacement of school-related employment by a predominantly residential use with limited ground-floor retail. This range is driven by the square-footage-per-job assumption, which is uncertain and wide.

Fiscal effects

Current real estate tax. The current assessed value of the project parcels, drawn from the City of Fairfax Real Estate Assessment Database (WebPro, 2026 vintage), yields a current real estate tax of $2,133,655/yr, computed as current assessed value times the real estate rate divided by 100. As noted above, current parcel assessments reflect the built or under-construction project rather than the pre-development school-use baseline; the tax increase figures computed below consequently understate the true increment from the original baseline.

Projected assessed value and real estate tax. The projected assessed value is estimated at $121,838,000–$184,890,000 (central $161,842,000), computed as proposed units times an assessed value per unit drawn from 100 condominium comparable sales in the City's assessment database (median $587,750/unit, range $443,000–$665,000/unit), plus proposed retail square footage times an assumed commercial assessed value of $275/sqft (range $200–$400/sqft). The projected real estate tax is estimated at $1,306,713–$1,982,945/yr (central $1,735,750). This results in a real estate tax change of −$826,943 to −$150,710/yr (central −$397,905), computed as projected minus current real estate tax. This figure is negative across the full range because current assessments already reflect completed or substantially-complete development.

Other recurring revenues. Additional revenue lines estimated in this analysis include:

• Personal property tax on resident vehicles (rough estimate): $91,951–$391,534/yr (central $208,862), computed as new households times assumed vehicles per household (1.4, range 1.0–1.8) times assumed average vehicle assessed value ($14,000, range $9,000–$20,000) times the city personal property tax rate. This is a rough estimate; vehicle count and value are assumptions, not observed data.
• BPOL business license tax on project retail (rough estimate): $1,478–$11,927/yr (central $4,756), computed as proposed retail square footage times assumed gross sales per square foot times the BPOL retail rate divided by 100 times a net-new share assumption (0.30, range 0.15–0.50), with an offset for resident spending that would no longer generate BPOL at displaced city businesses.
• Business tangible property tax (rough estimate): $3,304–$12,390/yr (central $6,608), computed as proposed commercial square footage times assumed equipment value per square foot ($8/sqft, range $4–$15/sqft) times the business personal property rate.
• Meals tax on captured in-city dining: $36,457–$80,961/yr (central $54,982), computed as restaurant spending times the in-city capture share (from the economic Huff run) times the city meals tax rate.
• Meals tax on the project's own restaurants (rough estimate, net-new): $9,977–$187,849/yr (central $53,507), computed as ground-floor square footage times assumed sales per square foot times an assumed restaurant share of retail space (0.50, range 0.30–0.70) times the meals tax rate times the net-new share, with offsets for displaced resident spending.
• Local sales tax share on captured in-city retail: $19,813–$40,996/yr (central $28,652), computed as in-city captured retail spending times the local sales tax share per Virginia Code § 58.1-605.
• Local sales tax on the project's own retail (rough estimate, net-new): $7,390–$59,635/yr (central $23,781), computed as ground-floor square footage times assumed sales per square foot times the local sales tax share times the net-new share.

Service costs. Two framing approaches are used. This analysis uses the marginal framing: non-school per-capita city cost ($5,254/resident, derived from FY2027 adopted General Fund budget excluding the FCPS tuition transfer, divided by the city's 25,026 residents) multiplied by a marginal cost factor of 0.35 (range 0.25–0.55), plus school costs modeled separately as estimated students times the net local cost per pupil. The marginal cost factor reflects that fixed services — roads, administration — do not scale proportionally with infill residents; the range (0.25–0.55) carries the uncertainty about whether service-capacity expansions are triggered. School costs are estimated as 13–43 students (central 27, computed as 266 units times 0.10 students per unit, range 0.05–0.16) times $19,961 net local cost per pupil (FY2027 FCPS tuition contract less state education revenue, divided by 3,103 enrolled students), yielding $265,475–$849,520/yr (central $530,950) for schools. Total service costs under the marginal framing are estimated at $785,353–$2,675,803/yr (central $1,479,868).

Net annual fiscal impact — marginal framing. This analysis estimates net annual fiscal impact at −$3,332,374 to −$150,772/yr (central −$1,496,625), computed as incremental new recurring revenue minus service costs under the marginal framing.

Comparison to applicant fiscal impact estimates. Two applicant-prepared fiscal impact statements are on record and are reported here as published:

• March 28, 2018 Fiscal Impact Statement (applicant): net annual fiscal impact of $733,000 to $1,145,000 (as stated: "BALANCE ($300,000) $733,000 $1,145,000"). The applicant also projects an assessed value of $180,226,000 for that scenario.
• November 16, 2017 Fiscal Impact Statement (applicant): net annual fiscal impact of $761,000 to $1,193,000 (as stated: "BALANCE ($300,000) $761,000 $1,193,000"). The applicant projects an assessed value of $188,638,000 for that scenario.

The ranges produced by this analysis (−$3,332,374 to −$150,772) and the applicant's published ranges ($733,000–$1,145,000 and $761,000–$1,193,000) do not overlap, and the sign of the result differs. These are not combined or averaged. Several methodological differences are visible in the metric methods and narrative notes: the applicant estimates appear to use a gross revenue framing rather than a marginal cost framing, and the current-baseline real estate tax used in this analysis reflects parcels already assessed at or near post-development values (understating the true increment), which mechanically depresses the revenue side of the change computation here. The applicant estimates were prepared at earlier plan versions with different unit counts (295 units in the March 2018 submission; 321 units in the November 2017 submission) versus the approved 266-unit program used in this analysis. The reader should review both sets of estimates and their underlying methodologies directly before drawing conclusions.

Not evaluated in this version

Analyses of the proposed bike-lane corridor, trail connections, pedestrian and multimodal connectivity improvements, environmental and stormwater impacts, and comparable-places benchmarking are deferred and were not computed for this version of the report. These items may be addressed in subsequent analysis phases.