Pickett Road Connector Trail

Project description

The project site is an undeveloped, wooded property north of Thaiss Park along Pickett Road, currently owned by Fairfax Water. No existing trail, path, or active pedestrian facility is documented at this location. The proposal calls for a new shared-use path approximately 1,260 feet long — consistent across two source documents, the city project directory and a January 2022 public hearing advertisement, which both state "approximately 1,260'" — to be constructed on the east side of Pickett Road. Planned facilities include a shared-use path surface of asphalt and concrete boardwalk, along with a pedestrian bridge. The southern terminus connects to Thaiss Park; the northern terminus is not specified in the available documents. Project status is listed as unknown in the city's project directory as of the date of this analysis, and design documents available publicly range from schematic design through 60% construction plans.

Trail effects

Trail-user spending channel. The decay-weighted catchment population — meaning residents within practical walking distance of the trail's access points, weighted by how likely they are to use a trail given their distance from it — is estimated at between 27,350 and 57,786 residents, with a central estimate of approximately 41,498. This estimate uses a network-based walk decay anchored to trail-access trip research from Hennepin County, Minnesota (Iacono, Krizek & El-Geneidy, MnDOT 2008). Applying an annual user-days-per-resident rate of 6 to 20 (central: 12), drawn from the NCDOT/ITRE four-trail study of North Carolina shared-use paths, yields an estimated 164,100 to 1,155,729 user-days per year (central: 497,971). At a direct spending rate of $6.00 to $11.00 per user-day (central: $7.50), drawn from the same NCDOT/ITRE survey data excluding the Duck Trail as an outlier destination-tourism regime, the trail is estimated to generate between $984,602 and $12,713,014 per year in direct spending at nearby businesses, with a central estimate of $3,734,783 per year. These are screening-range estimates appropriate for an ordinary urban greenway; destination-trail tourism behavior is deliberately excluded from this analysis. Among individual nearby businesses, the highest estimated annual capture is $9,828–$33,197 for PNC Bank, $9,725–$33,082 for Shell, $9,725–$33,082 for The Hair Expressionist, $9,725–$33,082 for F45 Training Fairfax Circle, and $9,439–$32,754 for Ruby Tuesday.

Property value channel. The 446 parcels within 1,650 feet of the trail line carry a combined assessed value of $399,458,600. Applying a property premium range of 0% to 5% (central: 3%), drawn from Crompton & Nicholls (2019) review of 20 hedonic analyses, yields an estimated one-time capitalization of $0 to $19,972,930 (central: $11,983,758) in aggregate property value uplift. The zero lower bound is not a technical floor but reflects documented null findings — including results from an NCDOT American Tobacco Trail regression and an Indianapolis case — for trails that do not generate strong user demand or that serve lower-quality facilities. The annual real estate tax increment attributable to the premium, if and as assessments come to reflect it, is estimated at $0 to $214,210 per year (central: $128,526). This figure is recurring in character only to the extent that the capitalization premium is sustained in the assessment base; it is not a one-time payment. Readers should apply caution at the high end of the property premium range: the literature guidance for unpaved or low-profile facilities suggests holding to the lower portion of the 0–5% interval.

Both channels exclude destination-trail tourism effects. The ordinary-greenway anchors used here are appropriate for a local connector path of this length and character; if future ridership or usage data suggest the trail draws visitors traveling specifically for the trail experience, these estimates would be conservative.

Not evaluated in this version

Broader economic and fiscal impact modeling, bike-lane corridor analysis, network connectivity analysis, environmental impact assessment, and comparable-places case studies are deferred from this version of the report and will be addressed in subsequent analytical modules as supporting data are assembled.