School Board Work Session

Speaker 7Okay, we're recording. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. It is Monday, November 10th, 2025. This is a work session of the City of Fairfax School Board. Before we begin, I'd like to just remind board members that if you'd like, just let me know if you want to be called upon a little more casual during work sessions. Just be mindful about Robert's roles. And also take a moment to welcome Dr. Wright for joining us in the audience this evening. For tonight's work section, we're going to begin with a discussion of the SRO Memorandum of Understanding from our Acting Superintendent, Dan Phillips, and we also welcome Captain Hawkins from the City of Red Rock's Police.

Dan PhillipsstaffHello. Thanks. All right. Thank you so much, Vice Chair, Sessori, and board members and guests tonight. We have a brief update about the MOU tonight. We've been working for quite some time on the Memorandum of Understanding, This is an agreement between FCPS, the City of Fairfax Schools, and the City of Fairfax Police. And again, we welcome Captain Hawkins from the City of Police this evening. Captain Hawkins and I worked together in partnership with Ryan Morgan, the Executive Director of the FCPS Safety and Security Office, to complete the process of reviewing and updating the MOU. And tonight we're going to tell you a little bit about what we've done and where we're going from here. And I'll share and I invite Captain Hawkins to just jump in with his perspective across

about a year ago we started the process of reviewing the MOU and it came to our attention that we were delinquent and updating the document. It's a document that should be updated every two years and it's been quite some time so when we found out about it we started the process and in July kind of all three FCPS, city police and our office had some turnover and some So we sort of had a great opportunity to regroup and start over. So Captain Hawkins and I got together with Ryan Morgan from FCPS, and the three of us came together and talked about resolving the need. We first confirmed that our respective legal departments had looked at the existing document, and we wanted to find out, even though the existing agreement was old, was it still in play?

it's still in effect and it was so that gave us a little time to go through the process properly which was important and so it remained in effect throughout the time we were doing the review for this updated document this allowed us time to complete the process properly and thoroughly at the same time Kerry Dorsey our communications director led the process of gathering public comment through our website so we had a window of opportunity open for public comment And also at our school board meetings, if anyone wanted to join us for those. And so after that public comment window, we reviewed all the comments. Captain Hawkins used the comments, the state model memorandum of understanding, the city of Fairfax policies, and the Fairfax County Public Schools student rights and responsibilities

to revise the original draft that we started with. And then we circulated the revised draft to all three organizations and that included staff members, the police chief, the SROs, the legal departments of the various organizations for comments and input. And then the final version we shared with the school board members has been approved through the city of Fairfax legal and it's now at Fairfax County Public Schools for their final legal check. and there weren't a lot of changes since the last document they saw so we're anticipating finding out very soon that we're good to go from them. Captain Hawkins thoughts and tell us just about the process you need.

Captain Andrew HawkinsNo I think you summarized it very well Dan. Dan and I have been working together for a few months now to update this agreement between the schools and the police department. So taking into account from the public comment period which happened at the beginning of the school year we wanted to make sure we reviewed all of those comments that would have been received and looked into how how to implement them into a an updated document to present to you all so we we did take all of those comments into consideration and push this to our legal teams to view review it if you will and give us feedback on that those have been vetted and our policies with department I will also add our top notch where we've recently gone through an

accreditation process to where I'm hoping later this month we will be accredited through CALEA which is the national accreditation standard so I'm very confident that all of the information in this document having reflecting our policies and the the attorneys who have reviewed it is a is a good document for the city and the schools.

Dan PhillipsstaffAnd so we're anticipating that late November, early December, we should get final sign-off by FCPS. And at that point, certainly depending on any questions or concerns you have, the document would then go to the police chief, to the superintendent of Fairfax City Schools, and also the superintendent of Fairfax County Public Schools for final signatures and kind of wrap up that process. Now, I think because we were delinquent this last time, one thing that we've talked about a lot is just making sure that that never happens to us again. And so the thing that's most important is that it's a document that functions well, and it's well designed, and it stays current. And so we're really grateful for the work that all the administrators and the SROs do,

and it's our hope that this document provides them information to guide their work in our schools. Once we get that final approval, kind of our intention, we're going to publish the MOU on both the Fairfax County Public Schools website and the City Schools website. And Captain Hawkins, would that be on the City Police website also? I know we're required to do it in FCPS as well,

Captain Andrew Hawkinsbut I don't know. You all are required. I would have to talk with the police chief and our IT staff and confirm whether or not it would be placed there as well, but we can get an information. And

Dan Phillipsstaffyou can also refer people to us when that happens. We also want to ensure that the administrators and the SROs read the document and understand the guidelines and that they stay current with that. And that would be an annual thing or any time when the administrators or the SROs change places. So if somebody new comes in, we'd want that to be a standard part of the procedure. I

Captain Andrew Hawkinscould just expand on that. So the board, you all are aware on how we in the police department train our staff on policies and changes to those policies. We have a weekly update on all of our policies that are updated from the week before. It goes out on Wednesdays at midnight, and all officers, all staff, are required to log in and review any policies that have been updated. So in regards to the school MOU, it would not just be our SROs who would receive this document and know what the agreement is between us and the school system. All sworn officers, in addition to all other staff, are required to review the document and sign off on that document as they've acknowledged receipt of receiving it and understand.

understand and if any questions come up we also have a stand-up meeting with supervisors every week for them to ask any questions get any clarification on changes in policy so just wanted to let you all know it's not just the sros while this document reflects the agreement specifically for how the sros operate with the school system also an officer will be required to sign off of them.

Dan PhillipsstaffAnd then on our end, FCPS administrators get a training every year of updated policies and changes. So they're trained during that time, but we're also going to personally make sure that the administrators, the principals at least, know to share it with their administrative teams at each of our four city schools, just to stay current. And then one of the most important things is making sure that two years from the time it's signed, we're ready to do another review and at that time we either you know review it we revise it if necessary or reaffirm that everything's okay and we'd make it public that we're doing the review at that time and captain hawkins and i are going to work to make sure multiple people in both of our departments have

that information i think that's really what happened last time by the time it was time for a new review people had changed places and then eventually nobody knew that that was supposed to happen so we're glad we know it we're thankful that we're able to fix it and hopefully we're And with that, Captain Hawkins, any other comments? I do not. Then turn it to the board for any questions you might have. Questions or thoughts?

Speaker 7Any board members of questions?

Sarah KelseyOne question I have for you is for the SR officers, is this a, they go through a yearly hiring type thing? or is it they are it until like they're asked to either go back into the field or I'm just curious on how long normally the SRO officers are around.

Captain Andrew HawkinsSure the SRO process when we have one that's open we will ask or advertise internally to see if there's any officers who wish to compete for in a process and interview for that position. It is an intense process. I mean an interview and stuff like that. We don't just take anyone off the street and say oh go to the schools okay. Now as far as how often or how long people stay in that assignment, it's really up to them. Unless there's some type of disciplinary reason where we would remove an officer from the school. I will share that I'm not aware of any during my career that that's ever happened, but they really stay in there as long as they want and they're doing a good job. I think that that's important as well. When you ingrain yourself into

the school and into the community, you learn more about what's going on, the lay of the land, how things operate and you know I've seen people that have spent several years in the school or even change schools just to get a little change of scenery but there's no limit if you will on how long someone either has to or can stay in that position.

Sarah KelseyI'm just making sure because officer John's and doing correct track and cross country I think it'd be a big loss over at KJ. They kids do so that's why and then I think that's all I have okay

Speaker 7so within our MOU can you explain any slight changes that may be different MOU in the county, like an FCPS school MOU, like somebody in the county side, is there differences or just to have that clarification on there?

Captain Andrew HawkinsIs that a question for me?

Speaker 7Yeah.

Captain Andrew HawkinsNow, if I could ask a just clarifying question, are you referring to the SRO agreement between the county police and the county schools?

Speaker 7So the, my apologies, let me be free. So this, at least this MOU, the SRO number of understanding rights in front of me here. like if I'm an SRO, I know our SROs are city police. There's ever a point where a city police officer would go to a county school or a county police officer who's an SRO would make a city school, is that fair, is that saying?

Captain Andrew HawkinsSo, yes and no. I'll try to explain this as easily as I can. We work with Fairfax County in all jurisdictions in this area every day. The authority to make arrests lies with us as city police in the city and Fairfax County within Fairfax County. So to answer your question, we could not go out to a Fairfax County school, let's just say Westfield High School, and effect an arrest. As well as Fairfax County police could not come into a city school and effect an arrest. Now, there may be, or there's often cases that we work across jurisdictional boundaries where a county, a Fairfax County officer may come into the school, work with our SRO for a case on a student that may go to the school or affected the school and vice versa.

So, does that answer your question? A

Speaker 7little bit. So, I guess, like, more to the administrators who do teeter that line more. Is there a red line version? We provide a redline version for them so they can see the difference between what this MOU agreement between just FCPS and the county school and the county police versus our a little more nuanced.

Dan PhillipsstaffYeah, sure. I think that's certainly something that we could do. I think the spirit of it really is the interaction between the school administrator and the police should be very similar in both places. Most of the things that are different would be things that are like procedural within the city police versus a different slightly different policy in the county. But the interaction with the school administrator should be very similar. But still, it's possible to show them both.

Speaker 7Okay, great. And then the second question I have is thinking about, you know, recognizing it's really important for that SRR to have a relationship for students in the schools. I've seen that having worked at Carpenter's High School. A lot of great SROs that came through, which has really created strong bonds and whatnot. In our agreement, it says they have access to student information, which does make sense under the umbrella of FERPA, according to the FERPA really so. When it comes to students with disabilities, where they might have a behavior plan in place, what does that relationship look like for those students in that relationship with SROs?

Captain Andrew HawkinsSo if I understand your question, I envision the relationship from an SRO and any student to be very similar. Now if a student has an IEP, special accommodations or something like that, I think that if there's behavioral problems that are happening in the school, I would expect that the SRO does some legwork, if you will, and speak with administrator or speak with the teacher who has more information on what those disabilities may be or how to help that student and correct whatever behaviors that have been brought to the attention of the SRO. As far as specific things, I think that's on a case-by-case situation. So does that answer your question?

Speaker 7Yeah, and again, students, school student diplosying always lies underneath the umbrella of the administrators and executives. Right.

Dan PhillipsstaffAbsolutely and accommodations and things like that that a student would get through his IEP would apply anytime in any of those same circumstances so that it would be up to the teacher and the school to make sure that the SRO had the information they need to meet any of those accommodations. I would

Captain Andrew Hawkinsalso share that we do a lot of training for staff de-escalation training in addition to CIT type of mental health training. So there's a lot of training that we as a department do that I think definitely spills into the school or you know rolls over there's overlapping programs that I think the school puts on that we put on from just just different perspectives.

Speaker 7Thank you.

Dan Phillipsstaffsee us going to go home. Thank you.

Speaker 7Next on the agenda, we have Eric Foreman, our City of Fairfax Development and Planning, who will be presenting the Student Yields and Boundary Committee updates. So thank you for joining us tonight.

Eric FormanstaffYou're absolutely welcome. It occurred to me as Captain hawkins was speaking i have a slide two slides on my own powerpoint of the boundary adjustment but that's not on here because this is the pdf so if you'd like i can give dan my thumb drive that will have show those maps if you're not familiar with boundary adjustment maps um

Speaker 7whatever whatever you think is is appropriate but if you want to just whatever you show just sure you give to ms king um so that could be whatever could be public there

Eric Formanstaffyeah dan is that good okay thank

Captain Andrew Hawkinsyou

Speaker 7thank you so much

Speaker 4again thank you

Eric Formanstaffjust a brief intermission

Speaker 7I'll be right to you where that is. Okay. I saw you hold this up as a woman. There's a pair

Eric Formanstaffof X. and that one right there I speed fell okay should look familiar so I'm glad you met Dr. Wright before our meeting and I was saying that this is working with the school board is my favorite part of my job so I'm glad to be here and typically talk twice a year, have talked once a year in the spring for quite some time, and that spring discussion is very detailed about student generation rates. A few years ago, I was asked to speak as well about new residential development, and that's the majority of this. The spring discussion is posted on generation rates with a little bit of development, and this is the reverse. Mostly you can think of it as a private development overview, so you're getting all the good information from the planning department.

And the reason is, is because over the last several years, with the amount of development we've had in the city, an increasingly big chunk of our new enrollment has been new development. So it's a good idea just for the board to be familiar with what's going on in the city, what might be coming down the road, what's already been approved by city council and whatnot. So I'll briefly touch on student yields and enrollment because that's new information and that'll be interesting too. So with that out of the way, we can start and look at our current year membership numbers in our four schools. So what's striking this year is that our membership out of three of our four schools has declined, and it's declined throughout most of the FCPS system, including much of the region,

Falls Church being the outlier there. But most significantly, the numbers of our city schools are less than the projections from last year. And as you can imagine in demographic circles, there's lots of talk about why this is happening. And I have some theories, and many other folks have some theories, too. But right now, we can just look at the actual numbers. And we can see several things in this chart. So the dark lines in each of those represent the last six years of actual September enrollment. That big dark dot is this current year. 25. Now those light colored lines, these are particularly interesting because what these represent is last year's projections from FCPS. So FCPS makes five-year projections every year.

I'm glad I'm not tasked with making these things. This is not an easy job. But there are some significant changes to what was projected last year. Daniel's run in particular, that's the purple line up there. So Daniel's run, last September and this September, we've seen a drop of 70 students. And that's in a year when FCPS had projected enrollment to students. So that's over 8% of the student body and that's a significant drop any way you look at it. So that's really big news. Other schools weren't that extreme. Providence membership has held much more steady. As you can see it's the red line there. Just a handful, just a small decrease. But again, the bigger news was that Providence's enrollment was expected to increase instead.

We'll take a look at how our schools' changes compare to other schools in the FCPS system. We'll take a look at that in the next slide. But for now, we'll just go on and look at the middle school and high school. Katherine Johnson, down there at the bottom left, you can't quite see it because of the color. That was right on target, just about, which is great. We'd love to see that. We did see a drop of 29 students. That was largely expected, and it's just because of cohort sizes. At the high school, we saw an increase in high school enrollment. Now, overall, Fairfax County public schools' high school enrollment actually dropped throughout the system about 2%. But even here you can see that the increase was less than what was projected last year.

So now these projections, they're largely done by extrapolating great cohorts. They don't account for known new development. And they don't account for unforeseen demographic changes. And I think that's a lot of what we're seeing this year. The folks who do this really do a great job. tough to do it and it's especially tough when there's demographic challenges we're seeing a number of those this year that just make it unpredictable so it's a little bit easier to understand this if it's put in context of other schools so that's what this does and you all have a the big sheet that's the handout has has this and has all 140 schools so you can look at that when you get home it's It's really interesting.

So this shows that enrolling change from last year to this year. This is all the elementary schools and FCPS. And elementary school membership in its entirety is down about 2.2%, and that's kind of that center column there. Daniel's run way over there on the right is way down. It's one of the biggest declines throughout the system. right now what's behind this we may have some kind of clue when we get our full address data not that that clue would really make it you know make everything explained if you remember last year Providence had an unforeseen increase we were able to peg it to the apartment complexes right along here at Germantown Road but there's no single cause to that it's just kind of the

fluctuation among rentals. Maybe the same thing with Daniel's run. Maybe it's something different. Hopefully, we'll have some kind of answer. You can see there's Providence there in the center, center-left, basically stable enrollment. And again, that's interesting because last year, our enrollment here just increased so much, and this year we're perfectly steady. There's a fairly good chance that we just may see some more of that big up and down swing in the next few years. This is middle school, and again, you have a take-home version of this as well. So total middle school enrollment is relatively steady to down about half a percent. Catherine Johnson saw a bigger decline in both schools, but middle school is tough to

make any kind of extrapolation with this because it's two grades and just the difference in one grade can be a big difference at the school level. And on to high school. High school total enrollment fell by about 1.8% system-wide so that's about a thousand students. Like I mentioned Fairfax High school membership increased modestly. One of nine high schools that actually increased in enrollment. Again, prematurely jump to conclusions about this, but what I find interesting, if I were to look at this and try to figure out a pattern, the pattern that really comes to me is that most of the schools that saw significant declines tend to be in lower income areas. Most of the schools that saw increases tend to be in higher income areas.

It doesn't really hold true at the elementary school level, but it just jumps out at me looking at these numbers just from a clean slate. So that might hold a clue to what's going on. Then again, it might not, but it's an interesting matter. And this is another big picture of regional enrollment trends. I like this chart. It looks at FCPS enrollment changes by school level, so elementary, middle, and high school since 2019. I've shared this with the board before in previous years. 2019 is significant because it was the last pre-COVID year. And we saw that big enrollment drop, especially with elementary and middle school during the COVID years. For the last two years, elementary and middle school enrollment system-wide has kind of

cracked back up, but then we saw that decline in both school levels this year. Lots of reasons why this might be the case. A lot of it's beyond what we're dealing with, what we're talking about tonight. But still, it's interesting material. If there's any questions about all of this before I get into the city-specific stuff,

Speaker 7Any board members have questions? Ms. Kelsey?

Sarah KelseyOn that first slide for the projections for FCPS, when did they make those projections?

Eric FormanstaffWith the CIP.

Sarah KelseySo they make it like more winter, spring-ish?

Eric FormanstaffRight. Okay. So these come out with draft CIP. I've never noticed them change between the draft and the final CIP. They might at some point. They never have.

Sarah KelseyOkay. And then also the high school numbers. Just refresh my memory. Is that homeschool only? Or if it's that it's Fairfax High School's homeschool, it's not counting academy kids.

Eric FormanstaffIt does not count academy kids.

Sarah KelseyOkay.

Amit HickmanMs. Sickman? Yes. So I'm really curious about the big drop at Daniel's Run. And I think I appreciate you following back up with us with the Providence, because I know there was a question we had last year. I know there's a million elementary schools, so on slide three you weren't able to provide the names. I am somewhat curious to see if it aligned. Never mind, you did send it to us, okay?

Eric FormanstaffThey are. Perfect. You might need to magnify that.

Amit HickmanI do, probably. Yeah, I'm just curious about if this is, when the numbers are pulled, it's not done by demographic, is it? I feel like we've had this discussion. You can't pull to see if there's a certain demographic that's leaving. I'm wondering if this is a political climate. implication not

Eric Formanstaffcountywide we we can't we we get that information city schools I don't have it county yeah we might be able to get it on on their website okay well

Amit Hickmaneven just city schools I'd be curious to see and I think like you said in terms of where people are living it's helpful um but if it is which I definitely need magnifying glass to see um reflects what the high school is showing it does seem to be that this is maybe kind of based off of um where we have some more of our students that are kind of coming and going within the schools so yeah

Eric Formanstaffyeah one of the theories about what might be happening and i think there's enough fact behind this to is the reduction in immigration and i know that's a political topic and i don't want to get into the politics of it, but if you look just on demographics, direct foreign immigration, people moving from another country directly here, accounted for the majority of Northern Virginia's population growth for the last decade. I mean, like back to 2014. In the last two years, it accounted for all of it. You know, and then some. So the reason is that since the middle of last decade, if you look at domestic migration, so just people in and out within the United States. More people who moved out of Northern Virginia

than moved in. So we lose population domestically. There's a little bit of natural increase in births, but foreign immigration has been so strong for most of the last decade, that's accounted for our population growth. If that's pulled back, and it's too early to know now because those numbers take a while to come out, but if that's pulled back, that could account for a population decrease.

Amit HickmanOkay, thank you.

Eric FormanstaffThat was actually exactly what I was thinking. People continuing to move out. Yeah, and not

Amit Hickmancome in. Okay, thank you so much for that. Ms. Baldwin?

Speaker 7I think my question's answered. You might, this might not be within your circle of responsibility. Just thinking about things run too, and the changes that are happening within the federal government side as well, Is that something that you might be seeing in the tea leaves here of enrollment that as federal workers are perhaps shifting to other, maybe other places, other opportunities and whatnot?

Eric FormanstaffI'm not sure that that's been reflected a whole lot as of this September. I think in years to come it certainly will. I'm not sure how many federal affiliated workers or federal workers or contractors have actually moved out in the first nine months of the year. It could be a lot. It could also be fewer. I think some folks think that a lot of the federal workers who've taken that early retirement have been retirement eligible anyway, in which case they wouldn't have a lot of school students associated with them. So it's a little bit unsure, but I think that definitely plays a role. I think another thing where that may come into play is, again, a reduction of people moving into this area for federal employment or for contractors.

I have a feeling that that might emerge in apartment rentals, because we've never quite been able to figure out who these people are. So let's look at our new apartment complexes, really throughout the region. So these are apartments that rent for $2,000, $2,500 a month, and so on. Who is living in those who have children who go to school? a lot of folks think that it's people who are moving here from other parts of the country, either moving here temporarily or moving here and staying in an apartment until they figure out where they're going to live permanently, but it's kind of a constant churn of that population. If that is cut down on due to a lack of federal hiring, that could affect an enrollment pretty significantly as well.

Speaker 7Thank you. Continue.

Eric FormanstaffSo this is the big goodie from our spring meeting. Student generation, you're probably familiar with this chart because I talk about a variation of this every year, but it's still worth going over. So student generation yield ratio refers to, I mean this is really the critical element in projecting enrollment for future development. involve students for housing unit, the major ingredient in our fiscal impact estimates that we do for new development. And we calculate these for various housing types, and we arrange these types into housing units or neighborhoods that share similar characteristics. So, for example, the older or established detached neighborhoods way on the left, that's a 0.383 ratio and that means essentially 38 students per 100 housing units and so on throughout

the line. And the reason we break this down this way is because when we're estimating enrollment from new development or future enrollment from planned development, this makes a big difference because we want to look at things that are similar to what is currently being built. So if we look at that detached in townhouse, you can see there's different, significantly different ratios between older types of units and the newer types of units that we see. If you look at multifamily, which is on the right-hand side of the screen, we see a big change or big difference between garden style and meat rise and a big change between rental apartments and condominiums. So this becomes real important when you try to figure out student

enrollment from all this new construction that's being built. So including this, this is last year's number, but I'm including it because this is what a lot of the other slides relate to. This is the chart that we come up every year. This is the revised chart that we use for the common types of So when we get a development application this year, we try to apply one of these ratios to it. Again, this changes every year. But that big one right there, apartment at .115, that's essentially what we're forecasting for new rental apartment developments. And that's really the big site you can see now. And it means that there's about 11 or 12 students for one of the markets. These are the caveats. There's always caveats.

They're important to talk about. But really the most important one here is that these ratios change over time. And again, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see these changing possibly significantly in the next few years as we go through some of those changes. I just don't know. I wish we did. Okay, so new development. This kind of sets the stage for discussing specific new developments. This chart is in the City Pack Book. If you're not familiar with the Pack Book, it's a great resource. I've shared this with the school board report as well, but this is updated with current information, so this is actually newer than what you would find in the Pack Book. This shows the number of housing units that have been built here in Fairfax City by decade

and the type of units that are built, townhouse, detached, multifamily, and so on. And that type is what's really important for us as far as living or student impact. These two on the right, on the far right, these are the important ones because these show housing units that have either been built in the last decade or have have been approved by City Council but have not yet been built. That one on the far right that that's the housing units that are currently under construction or approved by City Council. I know you all can't see the labels but that's what that's a far right one is I mean what's what's startling here is that not that column that's the second right that's this current decade it's really half a

decade and we can see that that number is more in terms of units than we've seen since the 1960s and we're only happy there's a big emphasis on multifamily. So you can see that most of that, those two columns are orange. Now there are some projects in there that are non-student generating. So the Plattson University, which is aimed mostly at college students. And then we have a senior housing facility that's being built now. So they're hashed off there, but still, I mean, you see that orange. I mean, that's a lot of construction we've seen our number of housing units in the city increased by 15% just in this half decade so that's a any way you look at it it's very graphic pace of change so all of that material there in that far right column that's

the approved projects so that's what we'll be focusing on for the rest of this presentation and also others that haven't yet been heard or been approved by City Council as well. And all of those are shown in this map as well as some that have already been built. And this shows all residential projects that have either already been approved, and And you can see the key on the right there. It says approved, filed, or potential. Those potential projects, those have been discussed at some kind of a public meeting. So either a planning commission or city council, usually a work session, to talk about a developer's ideas for a certain site. And down there at the bottom, you see the color key, as far as telling you whether it's detached townhouses or multi-family.

around the city and see where all of these are. This is a tremendous amount of information, so it'll make it a lot more digestible when I go through each one of these projects and kind of explain it a little bit and explain what the current status is. These two are the most interesting developments to talk about that we've seen. Yes. Mr.

Amit HickmanForeman, Ms. Higman, go ahead. Sorry, just really fast. So in May, you provided us with a really helpful map of very similar to this, but it had the breakdown of the number of students expected to be yielded out of each of those. Is it possible to get an updated version of that?

Eric FormanstaffIs that what's at the end of this? Maybe I'm just jumping ahead.

Speaker 7They're under each potential. And it looks like, yes, there is a there is a similar

Amit Hickmanversion. Yeah, okay. Yeah, because I'm seeing some pretty significant differences between last May and this one. I mean, it didn't even have Gatewood Plaza at all last May. So there's been enough changes that I think would be really interesting. Like the botanist seems to be new. Yeah, the botanist

Eric Formanstaffwas there last year. It was called something else. I have no idea what the botanist means.

Amit HickmanWas it Willowood? Willowood. It was Willowood, yes. Okay, so it's just changed names. Right. Okay. but I mean Gatewood Plaza with 334 units right I would be really interesting to see if you don't mind or even just I guess you have it here okay it's just different format I'll compare and contrast thank you okay

Eric Formanstaffand if there's anything else that you need for some reason if I provided something in May that's more helpful than this it's

Amit Hickmana very beautiful chart and I would

Eric Formanstafflove it again. And I'll get to it in a little bit, but that Gatewood Plaza development, right now they're proposing mostly one-bedroom units so it wouldn't be the kind of generation you'd see from the regular, but that can change.

Amit HickmanSeems to be, yeah, changing.

Eric FormanstaffAnd anything else before I move on?

Amit HickmanI had one more, I'm sorry.

Eric FormanstaffOh, yes.

Amit HickmanNo, go ahead. Okay, slide seven. for the student generation i know we've talked about this for a couple of years now um and actually just alluded to it it does seem that the one bedrooms we're getting more students out i mean fairfax square is a great example more students than the yield uh predictions are showing is there discussion on changing these numbers

Eric Formanstaffreally uh you know as far as as far as yield projections for new development we we look mostly at that newer type of housing units so fairfax square being the garden apartment nobody's proposing to build garden apartments any longer i mean if they if they were we would use

Amit Hickmansorry scat on the circle scout on the circle yes produced more students than we ever expected and so i'm wondering if that is going to affect the numbers that are being used to predict.

Eric FormanstaffIt does. So the way that we come up with this is to reach that .115, I average our apartments, so in this case, Scalp and the Point of Fairfax, with five or six others that are surrounding the city that are similar in type. So that mid-rise, kind of five-story type of apartment and and the ones that surround a bunch of them are districted to Fairfax high school and even even the ones that are not are just close enough to us to really be a comparable so I'd like to build up more than just two as a comparable so that 52 number actually does get factored into that I think that The Scout and the Circle was the highest of all of those six or seven that I use as comparables, but that did contribute to it.

Amit HickmanOkay. And then I guess it's a similar question to the detached style that seems to be actually yielding less than it did in past years, especially with the birth rates going down and the housing costs being so high that I'm not sure, you know, it almost feels like they're kind of leveling out a little bit. Yeah. So you're looking at all that. Yeah. Okay.

Speaker 7Just a clarifying point, when you average those similar units together, Scout in the Circle and surrounding, are you noticing the same output of student ratio coming from those? I just worry that we might be having more students in our city ones versus the county surrounding, and that might be a lower output, which is lowering that average. I'm just curious what you...

Eric FormanstaffI'm really curious to see this year, because last year we had two new style apartments. We had Scout and the Point of Fairfax. Point of Fairfax was a little bit lower than the Comperable. Scout was a little bit higher. They tend to jump around a lot just because the rentals and a lot of people moved in and moved out. And the same, it's not just ours. I mean, it's the same with the other four or five as well. So I'm curious this year, now that that point development has been fully leased for over a year, I'm really curious to know what the yield will be to see if our city apartments are actually higher than those that surround us.

Speaker 7Ms. Kelsey, Ms. Barnaby, do you guys have any questions? Thank you.

Eric FormanstaffYeah. So these are our two, and this is pretty much what we've just been talking about so you can see that that scout ratio of .13 is higher than that .115 that we talked about. I'm awfully curious to see what that's going to be this year. That went up from, I think, 45 the year before. Yeah. It's comparable

Speaker 4in cost.

Eric FormanstaffYeah.

Amit HickmanWell, to an extent, because it doesn't point have more, it's a little bit more expensive, I think.

Eric FormanstaffI think so.

Amit HickmanYeah.

Eric FormanstaffSame general, same class. When apartments are rated as a class, I don't know if they do it by stars or class A, B or C. They're in the same category. Boulevard 6 is the other development that's pretty much fully built that we've seen come online just within the last year. It's an interesting development. It has a few single family homes, mostly townhouses and condos. The condos are interesting because there you condominium and office. That was mostly leased or mostly occupied last year. We only got two students from over 137 occupied units. If that was a rental apartment, we'd see, I don't know, a dozen or 15 students from there. So big, big difference between condos and rental apartments. Those townhouses, that's about right where we'd expect them to be.

from about 90 occupied units. I'd expect that number to go off as more of those units were occupied. I'd expect it to level off at around 20 or so in a few years. But this is almost entirely occupied now, or as of September, so we should get a better understanding of that. And there's a few other developments that are under construction right now. This consists of two parts. So this is one with the senior housing component and in addition to that it's got a section of 56 townhouses. So last year there were only a handful of them occupied at the beginning of the school year. This year most of them are occupied. So I'd expect at full build out and full stabilization I'd expect 10 or 11 students from there.

Also, there's a small development on West Drive that's known as Pocket Place. This has been on our slideshow for the last several years, and it never seems to get started, but this year it actually did. Some of these are occupied now, so they're fully occupied. Pretty soon just a handful of students there. and the other one that's currently under construction this is an interesting one too it's now called an overlook at fairfax boulevard this is where the fairfax garden apartments used to be and the breezeway motel so it's interesting for two reasons so it's an unusual mix because it It has townhouses and those two over two piggyback style condominiums. And also interesting because it replaced Fairfax Garden Apartments,

which is there on the right, and that was a lower income apartment complex that generated a whole lot of students for its size. So even though this has been redeveloped with something like three times as many housing units, we've actually seen a decrease in enrollment from it. So kind of the opposite effect that you tend to think of with new development. That's what is going on there. It was partially occupied as of September, so I'd expect a few students from here this year, probably a few more next year, probably topping out at about a dozen or so students. There were about 30. So these are the units under construction. We can move on and talk about the approved units. So most big developments in Fairfax need city council approval in some form or another to be approved.

And it's important to keep in mind because sometimes, and these have all been approved, but the next round of them that we'll talk about are those that are potential. And sometimes you hear of a potential project and you think that it's an absolute certainty, but it's not necessarily because city council has to okay it. And we actually did see a project that got denied this year, a apartment project that was on our slideshow from last year, Courthouse Plaza Shopping Center. So the owner and the developer of Courthouse Plaza intended to tear down part of the shopping center or so, and that was actually denied. It'll probably come back in another form. We've seen a number of developments that have done that, but just to let you know.

But these projects here that say approved, they have in fact received city council approval. So this is one. This is, what a name for botanists. I can't explain it. Highlight

Speaker 7all the trees in the city.

Eric FormanstaffYeah, there's six of them. Yes. More to come. When it's fully stabilized, it'll be eight. So from everything I can tell, this looks like a standard apartment complex, typical unit mix. It has 6% affordable units, which is the typical rate for approved apartments. So I'd apply the standard ratio here, about .115, you know, about 30 students or so, and 260.

Amit HickmanMs. Sigmund, do you have a question? I do. Is that replacing another? No,

Eric Formanstaffthat's new. So that is added. If you're familiar with the Willowood office complex, they're actually building this in one department. Okay,

Amit Hickmanso the complex behind it that feeds into Providence will remain there? Yes. Okay.

Speaker 7Yes. And they broke ground there, it looks like, in the last month or so, maybe a few weeks. Yeah, they have it fenced off, construction, that kind of thing.

Eric FormanstaffThat's good to know. It's a road I never travel on, so the whole thing can be built. Good to know that.

Speaker 7Any other members real quick?

Eric FormanstaffAnd really, that estimate of 30 students, that kind of makes me sweat looking at that because I've just got a feeling that might not be. I mean, it looks accurate from right now in what we've been seeing at Scout and at the point, but we'll see.

Speaker 7Yeah, I wonder if it is going to be more because right across the street is Amazon Fresh, restaurants. I mean, it's right along a major artery. It seems like a prime place to rent an apartment. Yeah. 66.

Eric FormanstaffSo if you, this is one of those projects that has kept coming back and back and back. If you follow city council meetings, you've probably seen this come up to city council a half dozen times or so. This is the Davies property, which is, it's a two-acre property that now contains a big old White House. It's right across from Judicial Drive on Chambered Road. There have been a number of proposals for this site, and in July, City Council did approve this one. So it's 276 apartments. Again, pretty standard ratio of unit mix and 6% of affordable units. So I would project about the same thing.

Speaker 7Eric, do you notice any increase in families utilizing those affordable units?

Eric FormanstaffI've tried to match up the affordable addresses with the students, and I haven't been successful at that because I think the affordable units can actually jump around within the building as they become occupied. So it's awfully tough to tell. I would assume the answer is yes. Because everything that we've seen has shown that affordable units have probably twice the student generation as market rate units. This is an interesting contrast. This was approved two years ago. So there hasn't been any activity on this, and I really wouldn't be surprised. I have it listed as delayed down there. I wouldn't be that surprised if this gets shuffled off into that latent hall category of things that may never be built.

But it's still out there. It's been entitled, which means that the developer can start at any time. But it's an interesting contrast because it's proposed as condo units. And if it does actually come to fruition, this is a pretty big building. pretty minimal student impact. I'm just taking a handful of students from this, if it does get built. But it is an interesting contrast. Again, it shows that condo ratio and how that varies from the apartments. This is also an approved project's townhouses. This was approved a few years ago, 13 townhouses on about an acre of commercial land Fairly standard for townhouses, not too many of them, so we would expect about one student per five housing units,

so two, three, four students or so. And these are market-grade housing, so this is not an affordable complex. But affordable townhouses tend to generate a whole lot of student enrollment, and this is one of them that's been approved. So this project is affiliated with Habitat for Humanity. It was approved a few years ago. I think Brown was broken on this this year on the site of Fairfax Presbyterian Church. So it's 10 units. We had talked here at the school board a few years ago about student generation from affordable housing. you know we kind of settle on that double market rate but honest double market rate gets you four to five four or five students here I would expect I'd estimate that is under construction now I'm not sure that we'd see occupancy for next

year but certainly from the year after that. So those are all approved. So with the exception of that one condo project that's been delayed, these are all going to see fruition in the next few years. These are those that have been filed recently. So this is probably the majority of what you were talking about, about new things that have appeared on this map of you. Haven't seen before. Now these all have been talked about publicly, so either in a city council or a planning commission meeting, but these have not been approved yet by city council. And again, it's important to keep in mind that these may change before a final hearing. They may be withdrawn. The property owner may come to the conclusion that whatever they propose doesn't make sense

and all that kind of stuff. But city council does have discretion on these, so they may approve them, they may deny them. I just want to mention that because I don't want to give the false impression that all of these are going to be approved. So I won't dwell on the details of these, but we'll just talk about the general types of these projects. This one on the left here, this is proposed for the building near Fairfax Circle that used to be Lottie Plaza. grocery store. So it's a commercial to residential project. From a policy perspective, that's kind of a lightning rod these days because the municipalities want to keep as much commercial space as possible and not see commercial space turned over to residential space. So this

is a little bit, I don't want to say controversial, but it kind of is for that reason. It's a 10-story building is what's been proposed. 261 apartments. It's got a relatively small footprint, which is why it's so high. So that's that. And then over here on the right is that Gatewood Plaza that we had talked about. So this is another one of those commercial to residential buildings. The owner of the office building that's there now has proposed tearing down the office building and building this structure of 300 some remarkment units. Right now they're proposing mostly one bedroom units. If it actually gets built as mostly one bedroom units, you really see not all that much in terms of student impact.

What I have here is five, I mean that's kind of a rough guess, figuring that the generation would come from a small number to two or three bedroom units. in mind I mean this this could easily change going in any direction it could be withdrawn from a real estate perspective it's tough right now because the developers we've seen demand for residential and not that much demand for commercial. That's what's going on. This is small by comparison, 14 townhouses at the Mantua Professional Park, Professional Center on Pickham Road. And these are potential projects, as in they they've just been talked about briefly at City Council. And these are all relatively new. On the left here, this is at the Fairfax Boulevard

and Chambridge Road intersection on one of the gas station properties. And the current proposal is for 271 apartment complexes, apartment units. If it's built that way, I'd estimate about 30 students. The one in the center, this is just a recently discussed project by the owners of Fairfax Square. So Fairfax Square is the, it's both an apartment complex and an office, has an office component as well. It's on Main Street right across from Workstation Road. So if you can picture the whole, the commercial component is kind of up front. It has a five or six story building and a bunch of kind of low slung buildings as well. The developer or the property owner proposes to demolish most of the commercial component

and build 300 apartment units in two or three buildings.

Amit HickmanMs. Higley. To clarify for that section, that would be in front of the current Fairfax Square apartments or like right to the left of it, it wouldn't replace them?

Eric FormanstaffIt would not replace the existing apartments. So the apartments are both behind and if you're looking at it, behind and to the right of the commercial.

Amit HickmanSo it would be in addition to what's already there?

Eric FormanstaffIn addition to the residential that's already there. so it would replace and that's another one of these commercial to residential projects and they do have a little bit of program they've got about 15,000 square feet of commercial space for those but essentially it's a commercial to residential conversion thank you so it'll be interesting to see how City Council handles these because there's a lot of these commercial to residential projects that were the worst.

Sarah KelseyMs. Kelsey? So to go off of Ms. Hickman's, the 300 apartment units, is that new?

Eric FormanstaffThat's new. Okay, so it's not

Sarah Kelseycounting the current existing.

Eric FormanstaffRight, so currently there's 500 apartments in that complex, so this would add 300 to this. Now this one to the right is called Christopher at Fairfax. This, I have it listed as potential may have actually filed it this week. They seem intent on doing so, so if they haven't done it, they probably will in the next few weeks. This is a developer who is assembling a bunch of properties along Chainbridge Road, just south of Old Town, kind of across Chainbridge Road from the County Board House complex. So if you can picture where that Davies property is these are the next properties down right now it's a 257 apartment unit so I'd say again that's assuming that they're you know a typical mix and again

Amit Hickmanreplacing commercial

Eric Formanstaffwith residential So all of these are right so this is replacing all the stories So just keep in mind with all of these and certainly change. This is a perennial slide. I never have to change this. But I've got to mention it because it carries just a whole lot of student impact. This was this was approved in 2013 so that's 12 years ago. I mean that it gets it gets entitled and and then the developer can pick up at any time.

Speaker 7How often does that entitlement occur? And what is that resetting period like?

Eric FormanstaffIt doesn't happen very often. And they had done... So typically one of these projects is valid for two years. What they did is they did a very minimal amount of site work on the project and doing that minimal, and I don't remember what it was, it was like creating a sidewalk or something, I mean, it was something really minimal, but that was enough to say that they started the project so they could pick it up at any time. Now, the thing is, they have to build exactly what's approved. They can't deviate from that. If they want to deviate from it, they'd have to go back for city council. I mean, it's been so long. I mean, whatever it was that was approved by not even being passionate anymore. I mean, you know, eventually we'd make more sense to just come back for something new.

But they could take it out at any time. Okay. And honestly, with the apartment market being like it is now, I'm surprised they have it. But I don't know what's behind the scenes.

Speaker 7Especially with everything that's being built around that.

Eric FormanstaffRight. Yeah. Yeah. So we'll see that again next year. And now we're ready for those concluding slides. These really summarize what we talked about, but without the graphics and with some of that expected view kind of added up. Hopefully this will kind of tie things together and do a good quick reference. those projects that would probably be occupied in the next year. Not a whole lot of them because Northfax and Overlook are already kind of partially occupied. But I'd say next year we'd have an additional five to eight students from one of these. It's a little bit more as we move along. So these are developments that have been approved by city council. And I'd say that these are likely to appear within the next five years or so.

Various stages of being under construction, but let's say five years from now, I think we can look at about 70 net new students from these complexes. Because this construction is not there right now. So these are already approved by City Council, so I think there's a really good chance that we'll see the units and also see the . And I should mention that far right column is the elementary school group. And these are those potential developments, longer list, and again you'll notice that the vast majority of these are apartment complexes. So that's where the developer interest is, that's where the city development plans are leading developers to building apartments, that's what you see here. and raise up over a hundred students as far as enrollment companies assuming that

they're built as we kind of anticipate and also assuming that that yield ratio stays roughly where it is now. Don't know, could go in either direction. That is that as far as the development overview. I'd be happy to answer any questions and I can go on to the secret slides at the end that have been boundary maps.

Speaker 7Absolutely. Any questions? I'll start on this. Ms. Bartle, do you have any questions? No, not right now. Okay. Ms. Kelsey?

Sarah KelseyYeah, I have two. On a lot of the apartments that you, like the pictures that are on here, it's showing retail at the bottom. Is that how most of them are being presented as well? Yes. The retail on bottom and the residential on top?

Eric FormanstaffRight, and the reason is that that is, for most of these, for all of these, except for Fairback Square, they're located in what the city terms activity centers, which are places that the city wants to see developed into kind of this urban type of environment and those activity center guidelines pretty much say you should have retail on the ground floor we always I shouldn't say always frequently get pushback developers on that the botanist yeah these these people really didn't want to include retail in there. And I can't remember how much retail is included. There may be 10,000 square feet or so. Most of them are a little bit more, you know, 15,000, maybe up to 20,000 square feet in that area.

That's kind of the fashionable thing to do. Fairfax Square, even though it's not in one of those activity centers, they also proposed that as well.

Sarah KelseyAnd then my other question is, once they are approved, because I know you said a couple of them are saying they're going to be one-bedroom apartments.

Eric FormanstaffRight.

Sarah KelseySo once they've been approved by city council, let's say they start to build and they're realizing the outcome of other places and they see one-bedroom apartments doesn't make sense, can they change it to two-bedroom, three-bedroom type thing, or is it they have to go back to city council?

Eric FormanstaffI think, I'll check on this and make sure that I'm correct about this. I think they can shuffle it around, but they can't have more units. And part of the reason is parking, for instance, is based on the number of units. So there's a little bit of shuffling they can do without triggering something being out of compliance. So you can have less

Sarah Kelseyunits, though?

Eric FormanstaffI think they could have less units.

Speaker 7Which would be more kids.

Eric FormanstaffWhich would be more kids. But it is. The bigger thing that could be changed after approval is a switch from condos to apartments or apartments to condos. Because these are approved as the physical development, not the ownership type. And with fiscal impact studies, that's always made me nervous because if developers catch wind of the fact that condos are much, much more favorable the apartments there's nothing preventing them from saying oh we're building condos and then getting approved and then saying oh well the condo market tank you know we're going to make these apartments and there's nothing nothing thank you

Amit Hickmanis it good i have one comment and one one thing for dan um mr phillips so oh one question i know in the past we've asked this question i'm asking again how does the county you know, the things that are happening in the county and the buildings that are happening there and how is that impacting what's within our boundaries further west?

Eric FormanstaffMost of our most of what's going on is within the city. So there are two and I think I presented these at the spring meeting. There are two apartment complexes that have been approved in the Fairfax and Katherine Johnson portion of Fairfax County. I haven't kept track of those to see if they're being built yet, so I'll do that. Okay,

Amit Hickmanthank you. And I don't even know if they're, with the small changes in boundaries, if they'll even affect us anymore. I can't remember, I feel like they

Eric Formanstaffwere a little

Amit Hickmanbit in the west.

Eric FormanstaffThey, I think they're still within our boundary. The major change, I'll get to the major, the potentially major change that I'm sure you have in the house.

Amit HickmanOkay. Okay. And then I know for a while we were getting emails about like if there were any changes or updates from Mr. Plattenberg about some of these buildings. Are you still getting those?

Dan PhillipsstaffI haven't gotten anything.

Amit HickmanOkay.

Dan PhillipsstaffI think the most recent one I have is about a county.

Amit HickmanOkay. So I wasn't sure if you had fallen off of them or if they're just not being sent out. Well,

Dan PhillipsstaffI don't know. I'm not given. I guess I don't know.

Amit HickmanRight. So just maybe worth at least checking on the radar to see if you fell off those emails somehow.

Eric Formanstaffare still. Okay. He sends Dr. Wright.

Amit HickmanYeah. And some of them weren't always the most helpful, but I think every so often there was one that was really good information.

Eric FormanstaffYou're talking about the planning department sending you information and asking for comments.

Dan PhillipsstaffNot necessarily. Well, we get the, I have been getting, just the update. I think it's most of the county that I've seen recently, of the potential filing that

Eric Formanstaffwould impact one of our four schools. Is this something that Brooke Harden sends?

Amit HickmanNo, they were coming from Albert Frederick.

Eric FormanstaffOkay. Bible check.

Speaker 7Thank you. I have... I'm sorry. I'm just... I'm sorry.

Amit HickmanI just wanted to put one thing, just for the record. Quick calculation here. Oh, looks like you did the same one. it looks like so currently we've got potentially 32 students for Daniel's run for those that have already been approved 85 for Providence and if these other potential developments get approved brings us up to 135 new students for Daniel's run and 120 for Providence so pretty significant numbers there yeah thank you actually

Speaker 7I'm gonna clear before I pass off from this Barna May just because there's zone there doesn't mean that we're gonna get elementary kids 100% and it's 20, 135 kids within two to three years in their schools. Yes, I'm sure. That's where they're zoned. They could be at KJ or Fairfax, but still, that's still a substantial amount of students. Even if I split that 10 students per grade, that's still a significant class size increase. Ms. Bollman. I have two questions.

Amit HickmanLast

Speaker 7time you talked a little bit about developments in the little donut hole that Fairfax County owns. Right. curious if you have more information about that I

Eric Formanstaffdo not as far as I know Fairfax County is still recommending an affordable housing complex on what's now known as the Burkholder Center so I haven't seen those plans go forward and I haven't seen them drop off not exactly sure why.

Speaker 7Do would that communication go through your office too? Just so, or I mean really that's something we probably should, I mean we absolutely should be aware of too. We just want to make

Eric Formanstaffsure that I'll check with our planning director and see if he knows of any update. I think that jurisdictions are required when a property is that close, ordering another jurisdiction, I think they're required to let someone know what's going on so I'll check with

Speaker 7even just thinking about transportation and impact on roads I mean like that's not our purview that city council's right but and that's why I asked that question and of course that will definitely if that happens that will definitely impact our schools too if if they're zoned for our schools

Eric Formanstaffso I will I'll check with our planning director and I'll let Mr. Colbert know Yeah.

Speaker 7And then I had one other question. What is the rationale for the pushback on the businesses?

Eric FormanstaffFrom the developer?

Speaker 7Yeah.

Eric FormanstaffThey say with the block of this building, they said that since they're not on a major road, that they don't get as much through traffic or pass by traffic, so commercial space wouldn't be viable there. I'm not quite sure. I think it just boils down to it's tougher to fill commercial space right now. and they want to live them over this as possible.

Speaker 7Okay. Any go-backs? All right. Continue on with your browner at

Eric Formanstaffthese. So, these are... In case you're curious, this is the chart on regional demographics. And this is dark blue. This is Northern Virginia as a whole. This dark blue is foreign migration. And this is direct from other countries. So this isn't people who immigrate to the US, spend two years somewhere, and then move to Northern Virginia. This is directly from another country. So this is domestic migration. So you can see since about 2014 there's been more people, this is the zero line, there's been more people moving out from Northern Virginia than moving in. Green is natural increase, so it's births minus deaths. So that's been positive. You can see it going down, that's the reduction in birth rates.

But it's that dark blue that's foreign migration. And you can see over the last three years, that has been, and there's zero right there. So that's accounted for all of the region's population increase. So if this number here is reduced, then that would have a lot of demographic effects. So that might be part of what's going on demographically. This chart, I got this, I actually didn't do the calculations for this myself. This comes from the Northern Virginia Regional Commission. It's on their website. We do put it in our fact book each year as well because people find this extremely interesting. That's what's going on with that. It's an interesting story. Okay, boundary review. So I've been a part of Fairfax County Boundary Review Committee.

I'm not quite sure what to say. I'm a little bit perplexed because this, you know, they started off saying Fairfax County hasn't reviewed its boundaries in the last 40 years, and the boundaries don't make any sense. We need to make these wholesale changes. After eight months of meeting, they're proposing 1.5% of students to go to school or something. It's like, oh my gosh, why'd you do this? So it's been an interesting process. Somewhere along the line, they said that they wanted to eliminate what they call attendance islands. Attendance islands being part of an attendance boundary that's separated from the rest, classified this whole thing here as an attendance island. And I told the superintendent, I said,

nobody thinks of this as an island. This is like a continent. It's so big. And nobody who lives in here thinks that their kid's education would be better if it was just connected, you know, like by this. I mean, it's ridiculous. And I said that at one of these meetings, and of course it didn't make any difference. So what they had proposed doing was shifting all of this stuff in the middle to Fairfax and Katherine Johnson, which would increase our enrollment and make us over capacity. So chair pitches had a whole exchange with the superintendent in Fairfax. It still didn't make a difference. I wound up talking with them, got another letter written, and it's been taken off the table. So eight months of going to meetings is satisfied because at least I did something.

Speaker 7It sounds like parents are quite happy with keeping that there. Yes. Those who came to the boundary night were very happy with seeing this sort of return back to normal.

Eric FormanstaffYes, yeah, I think that's accurate. And it also had some other weird impacts because some of these schools would wind up being created as split feeders, which now would not, and that's also not desirable. So anyway, it's off the table. We're hoping it stays off the table. So for right now, there's two changes that have been proposed in this scenario for where they're at now. So the first one is this area just to the north of Providence, which is here. So here we are at Providence. So right now, this area here is districted to Providence, Catherine Johnson, and Fairfax. It is proposed to be shifted to Oakden. I think the only reason this is the case is because one of the representatives for the Fairfax High School Pyramid lives here

and kept inserting that as a recommendation. And she did it enough that it was if you've been tracking the whole thing, this popped up in scenario four and was never talked about before. And that's why. So this would wind up being districted to Oakton High School and Oakton Elementary, Thoreau and Oakton High School.

Speaker 4Yeah. Didn't you say on that earlier thing that Oakton High School had the highest the increase in population.

Eric FormanstaffYes.

Speaker 4I know they just expanded.

Eric FormanstaffI didn't think that the consultants would wind up doing that for this reason. Because it seems that Oakton already has capacity problems. Like just

Speaker 4a renovation.

Eric FormanstaffAnd I know Chair Pitches is concerned about this because this tends to be a relatively high income demographic area, so we would take a lot of that population out of province in particular.

Speaker 7I agree with that. And I'm curious because when you also look at, say, Willowcrest Apartments, which are not far, I mean, I think they're closer to, I believe, Oak Elementary, right? You're

Eric Formanstafftalking about the apartment.

Speaker 7Yeah, exactly. They would be closer to Oakden Elementary just going right up 123 versus those neighborhoods, which is, I think, they're a three-minute drive to Providence. And so I'm fascinated by that choice for that neighborhood to shift out of this pocket, but not necessarily students who are closer shifting over to Oakden Elementary.

Eric FormanstaffIt's because they had an advocate.

Speaker 7I know. Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. I appreciate you emphasizing that. Yeah.

Eric FormanstaffSo, interesting. Now, the future development angle, which is what I kind of alluded to earlier, a lot of this area here, I think it's the Flint Hill Office Park or something, is slated for residential development. So that'll happen. And part of the reason I'm perplexed about some of the things with the boundary study is it didn't seem to be taken into account future development. So I'm not sure anybody's aware that by doing this, they're going to be increasing the pressure even further on Oakton. This

Amit Hickmanis also at a date. That is Oakmont Park now. Yeah. Yes, it's no longer Oakmont.

Eric FormanstaffOh, is that right? Yes. That's interesting. naming change. So this is one. The other is here. So this will make more sense. So this is Fairfax High School boundary. This is Chantilly High School. So this is Fair Lakes Parkway. There's an area and i'll zoom in now so this is fair lakes parkway this is the shopping complexes so this area here which is mostly townhouses is being proposed to be shifted into chantilly high school and i i don't i don't know much about the rationale behind this other than geography because it's it's close but that is the other change

Sarah KelseySo could they be making some of these changes because where is the new high school that they bought? Like where is that that they bought? Oh my

Eric Formanstaffgoodness, that's the other thing. Like I know there was... So throughout this process, people started asking that at the beginning. Is the new high school going to be factored into that? And we were told, well, you know, we weren't sure if the new high school would be a general high school or if it would be a, you know, like a TJ West or something. And the rationale was we're just going to go ahead and continue with this because it's so important we have to. So it just, I don't know exactly where on the map this, it is, but that has not been taken into it.

Sarah KelseyBecause I was going to say, I thought it affected like Chantilly High School and like some of that, and that's why I wonder if they're giving more to Chantilly now thinking maybe those kids will shift. into yeah yeah yeah that's

Eric Formanstaffgood I

Sarah Kelseymean so

Amit HickmanI guess my question is why leave that little point on the left upper left side like why why are we you see what I'm saying like it's kind of there's still one area that almost is up there and then also to the bot like on the left of the hole of the orange Like a puzzle piece.

Eric FormanstaffYeah, down here.

Amit HickmanNo, that like puzzle piece up there.

Eric FormanstaffOh, yeah.

Amit HickmanWhat

Eric Formanstaffis that?

Amit HickmanIt's a lot of apartments.

Eric FormanstaffYeah.

Amit HickmanBut it's interesting because it almost looks like it splits. When I looked at Google Maps, it's almost like splitting an apartment complex. So why not? Well,

Speaker 7actually, I looked at that. On the left-hand side, like if you sort of created the circle around that, right? One purple, one pink, if you split it in half. Right. The purple side is apartments. And if I remember correctly, the left side is condos.

Dan PhillipsstaffOkay.

Speaker 7side of Fair Lakes those are all condos that are now removed. Which almost feels like it's the same point. There's probably an advocate somewhere around there that we're able to advocate for their kids to be going to Greenbrier east or west. I forget which direction that is. But I'm curious about the busing routes because if the whole prime purpose of redrawing these boundaries right is to reduce busing I'm curious about that section there. Like what's the busing look like for those kids? know

Eric Formanstaffso I don't know I know the transportation has been they've had representatives at these meetings but it hasn't seemed to me that the focus has been on transportation

Amit Hickmaninteresting right and I'm also curious about what this change will do to the demographics of KJ and Fairfax High School

Eric Formanstaffright

Amit Hickmanand how that will increase or decrease can I just point out one thing to you that I want to have on your radar the next means December 10th if I'm correct

Eric Formanstaffor The next meeting of the boundary committee. Yes. Okay,

Amit Hickmanbut they'll present they're not presenting the next scenario till December right

Eric Formanstaffso

Amit Hickmanwhen we were at the Meeting at Fairfax High School if you go back to like where that Willow Springs area was That was brought back to Fairfax once they decided not to move that little island

Speaker 7The

Amit Hickmanconsultant that was there and I still we think he was probably misinformed or confused, but he did mention pulling that bottom part of Willow Springs back over to Woodson, and there was at least one person on the phone advocating for that to happen. Just want to put it on your radar because that would then create a split for Willow Springs. It would completely change the demographics of Fairfax. So if you don't mind just kind of keeping that on your radar, because I think there was a reason it was moved back, and Chair Pitch has helped support the families from those that cobs corner right

Dan Phillipsstaffbut

Amit Hickmanmy understanding was somebody from colchester acres down there was pretty adamant about wanting to move over to woodson

Eric Formanstaffokay

Amit Hickmanso just so it's on your radar

Eric Formanstaffi i will keep an eye out for them you can't rest with this stuff no no you have to stay on top bounces back.

Speaker 7And to highlight a point that I emphasize here, at least in the city of Fairfax, your boundaries for the middle school and high school do not change. You are always, you know where you're going for middle school and high school when you're in the city of Fairfax, so that's a great perk. And the elementary school boundaries don't change, but these boundaries are supposed to be changing every five years within the county side of FCPS. Right. So.

Speaker 4So Eric, in the end, do you think they will make these change? I mean, do you think they this changes and if they do it's only the 1.5 percent that's all they're going to do i

Eric Formanstaffi would assume so

Speaker 7and

Speaker 4then they'll change again with the new high school yes

Eric Formanstaffright within the five year yes right

Speaker 7do we know how many kids are impacted by this

Eric Formanstaffwe we do i and and i think i think that number that's this is the website i don't know if you look look at that website I think that

Amit Hickmansend her like 3,000 students like it wasn't

Eric Formanstaffin our area oh in our area 24

Amit HickmanI want to say yeah

Eric Formanstaffyeah I don't think they

Amit HickmanI don't remember that we got the number for that smaller little section.

Eric FormanstaffI'll check on both of them and at the meeting in two days. If I can't find it, then I'll get it.

Speaker 7On the boundary review scenario explorer, when you click on the school that you want to look at and see the capacity changes, the current program capacity of Fairfax High School is 2,400 students. under scenario four which is what you have highlighted here is 2297 for the anticipated enrollment and that utilization is 95% so

Eric Formanstaffthat would take that would account for both of those yeah at least on high school level if we look at Providence Providence will tell you what that northern section yeah I

Speaker 7click on providence um for providence the current capacity is 297 and the anticipated enrollment under scenario four is 888 and a 91 utilization

Amit Hickman888

Speaker 7and a 91 percent wait what was it was 972 so nearly 100 students drop wow yeah that's that's a big that's not

Amit Hickmanthat's not the number they presented because they presented exactly how many i it was really like 24 25 so i'm curious where why these numbers aren't lining up

Speaker 7in scenario three it was 93 1 9 38 um and that's that's like a 40 student difference between

Dan Phillipsstaffbut

Amit Hickmanthen that would have been very misleading from what was Could you find that number up? Of course. Yeah. Yes, I will.

Speaker 7That's a

Amit Hickmanhuge

Speaker 7shift. It is

Amit Hickmanbig.

Sarah KelseyThere's no way. Look at that.

Speaker 7I wonder if there are some apartments right there, right? And that's a little alcove near Oakden. Aren't there apartments across from Oakmont?

Amit HickmanYeah. Not 100 students worth. But those neighborhoods are huge. Is this

Eric Formanstaffapartment?

Speaker 7No, those are office buildings. So where the circle is, like right across from Oak Park. Go down by the 123.

Eric FormanstaffOh, right there.

Speaker 7Yeah, there's apartments

Sarah Kelseylike through there. Those, though, do not. They do have some, because that's right across from where I work. And they do have some kids I've seen, but it's mostly older age kids, not younger age. And they are mostly that live in there. the people I know that live in there are younger families that don't have children or just starting to have their families so I don't know that that's that many children now if you come down where it says Fairfax Acres that there are some homes in that family homes and they do have more children and there's there's a lot of wealth in that

Speaker 7area

Sarah KelseySo I mean, yeah, it's probably more of those homes right there. The single family homes probably have. Well, and then you also have the other side of Germantown right there. Oh yeah, there's all those

Speaker 7condos right there.

Sarah KelseyWell, no, where Flint Hill is, you have a bunch of single family homes and townhomes in there. Yeah. And they do.

Speaker 7Yeah. I remember seeing the buses there. Yeah. Any follow-up questions?

Amit HickmanJust thank you for advocating for us and being on this committee. We

Eric Formanstaffvery

Amit Hickmanmuch appreciate it.

Eric FormanstaffI was glad that, like I said, after all of those meetings that I was finally able to do something. It was gratifying, so glad to help. Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much,

Speaker 7Mr. Chairman. any any last questions before we close all right so if there's nothing else we will adjourn the meeting at 8 0 8 p.m this pitches will be proud